United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)
UPS
United Parcel Service Inc
$104.50
+1.26%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $88.88B
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
$23.60
-1.95%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $18.20B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
United Parcel Service Inc generates 75% more annual revenue ($89.93B vs $51.49B). ZTO leads profitability with a 17.9% profit margin vs 5.1%. ZTO appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 1.27. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 70/100 (B-).
UPS
Buy52
out of 100
Grade: C-
ZTO
Strong Buy70
out of 100
Grade: B-
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
+16.8%
Fair Value
$144.29
Current Price
$104.50
$39.79 discount
Margin of Safety
+64.2%
Fair Value
$69.44
Current Price
$23.60
$45.84 discount
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Every $100 of equity generates 33 in profit
Large-cap with strong market position
Generating 1.2B in free cash flow
Safe zone — low bankruptcy risk
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Reasonable price relative to book value
Revenue surging 22.0% year-over-year
Generating 2.8B in free cash flow
Areas to Watch
Expensive relative to growth rate
5.1% margin — thin
Operating margin of 4.4%
Elevated debt levels
No major concerns identified
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : UPS
The strongest argument for UPS centers on Return on Equity, Market Cap, Free Cash Flow.
Bull Case : ZTO
The strongest argument for ZTO centers on Altman Z-Score, P/E Ratio, Price/Book. Profitability is solid with margins at 17.9% and operating margin at 19.2%. Revenue growth of 22.0% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : UPS
The primary concerns for UPS are PEG Ratio, Profit Margin, Operating Margin. Debt-to-equity of 1.82 is elevated, increasing financial risk.
Bear Case : ZTO
No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
UPS profiles as a value stock while ZTO is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.
UPS carries more volatility with a beta of 1.04 — expect wider price swings.
ZTO is growing revenue faster at 22.0% — sustainability is the question.
ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (2.8B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
ZTO scores higher overall (70/100 vs 52/100), backed by strong 17.9% margins and 22.0% revenue growth. UPS offers better value entry with a 16.8% margin of safety. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
United Parcel Service Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.
Visit Website →ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Visit Website →Compare with Other INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS Stocks
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