United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)
UPS
United Parcel Service Inc
$107.57
-1.13%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $91.40B
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
$25.14
-1.76%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $19.28B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
United Parcel Service Inc generates 80% more annual revenue ($88.32B vs $49.10B). ZTO leads profitability with a 18.5% profit margin vs 5.9%. ZTO appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 1.27. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 72/100 (B).
UPS
Hold47
out of 100
Grade: D+
ZTO
Strong Buy72
out of 100
Grade: B
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
+35.8%
Fair Value
$187.03
Current Price
$107.57
$79.46 discount
Margin of Safety
+81.1%
Fair Value
$131.93
Current Price
$25.14
$106.79 discount
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Every $100 of equity generates 33 in profit
Large-cap with strong market position
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Generating 1.2B in free cash flow
Generating 12.0B in free cash flow
Conservative balance sheet, low leverage
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Reasonable price relative to book value
Strong operational efficiency at 22.3%
Areas to Watch
Expensive relative to growth rate
5.9% margin — thin
Elevated debt levels
Weak financial health signals
No major concerns identified
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : UPS
The strongest argument for UPS centers on Return on Equity, Market Cap, P/E Ratio.
Bull Case : ZTO
The strongest argument for ZTO centers on Free Cash Flow, Debt/Equity, P/E Ratio. Profitability is solid with margins at 18.5% and operating margin at 22.3%. Revenue growth of 12.3% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : UPS
The primary concerns for UPS are PEG Ratio, Profit Margin, Debt/Equity. Debt-to-equity of 1.99 is elevated, increasing financial risk.
Bear Case : ZTO
No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
UPS profiles as a value stock while ZTO is a mature play — different risk/reward profiles.
UPS carries more volatility with a beta of 1.10 — expect wider price swings.
ZTO is growing revenue faster at 12.3% — sustainability is the question.
ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (12.0B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
ZTO scores higher overall (72/100 vs 47/100), backed by strong 18.5% margins and 12.3% revenue growth. UPS offers better value entry with a 35.8% margin of safety. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
United Parcel Service Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.
Visit Website →ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Visit Website →Compare with Other INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS Stocks
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