United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)
UPS
United Parcel Service Inc
$108.54
-1.52%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $92.51B
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
$22.28
-1.02%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $17.15B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
United Parcel Service Inc generates 72% more annual revenue ($88.32B vs $51.49B). ZTO leads profitability with a 17.9% profit margin vs 5.9%. ZTO appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 1.18. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 70/100 (B-).
UPS
Hold49
out of 100
Grade: D+
ZTO
Strong Buy70
out of 100
Grade: B-
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
+15.7%
Fair Value
$142.42
Current Price
$108.54
$33.88 discount
Margin of Safety
+64.6%
Fair Value
$70.28
Current Price
$22.28
$48.00 discount
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Every $100 of equity generates 33 in profit
Large-cap with strong market position
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Generating 1.2B in free cash flow
Safe zone — low bankruptcy risk
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Reasonable price relative to book value
Revenue surging 22.0% year-over-year
Generating 2.8B in free cash flow
Areas to Watch
Expensive relative to growth rate
5.9% margin — thin
Elevated debt levels
Weak financial health signals
No major concerns identified
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : UPS
The strongest argument for UPS centers on Return on Equity, Market Cap, P/E Ratio.
Bull Case : ZTO
The strongest argument for ZTO centers on Altman Z-Score, P/E Ratio, Price/Book. Profitability is solid with margins at 17.9% and operating margin at 19.2%. Revenue growth of 22.0% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : UPS
The primary concerns for UPS are PEG Ratio, Profit Margin, Debt/Equity. Debt-to-equity of 1.59 is elevated, increasing financial risk.
Bear Case : ZTO
No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
UPS profiles as a value stock while ZTO is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.
UPS carries more volatility with a beta of 1.04 — expect wider price swings.
ZTO is growing revenue faster at 22.0% — sustainability is the question.
ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (2.8B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
ZTO scores higher overall (70/100 vs 49/100), backed by strong 17.9% margins and 22.0% revenue growth. UPS offers better value entry with a 15.7% margin of safety. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
United Parcel Service Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.
Visit Website →ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Visit Website →Compare with Other INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS Stocks
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