Forward Air Corporation (FWRD)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)
FWRD
Forward Air Corporation
$16.63
+1.28%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $553.33M
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
$20.61
-1.15%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $15.87B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc generates 2053% more annual revenue ($54.21B vs $2.52B). ZTO leads profitability with a 19.0% profit margin vs -11.4%. FWRD appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 0.66. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 80/100 (B+).
FWRD
Buy52
out of 100
Grade: C-
ZTO
Strong Buy80
out of 100
Grade: B+
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Intrinsic value data unavailable for FWRD.
Margin of Safety
+65.7%
Fair Value
$72.52
Current Price
$20.61
$51.91 discount
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Earnings expanding 145.0% YoY
Conservative balance sheet, low leverage
Growing faster than its price suggests
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Earnings expanding 58.1% YoY
Safe zone — low bankruptcy risk
Reasonable price relative to book value
Strong operational efficiency at 22.2%
Revenue surging 23.0% year-over-year
Areas to Watch
Smaller company, higher risk/reward
ROE of -112.9% — below average capital efficiency
Negative free cash flow — burning cash
Distress zone — elevated risk
No major concerns identified
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : FWRD
The strongest argument for FWRD centers on EPS Growth, Debt/Equity, PEG Ratio. PEG of 0.66 suggests the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.
Bull Case : ZTO
The strongest argument for ZTO centers on P/E Ratio, EPS Growth, Altman Z-Score. Profitability is solid with margins at 19.0% and operating margin at 22.2%. Revenue growth of 23.0% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : FWRD
The primary concerns for FWRD are Market Cap, Return on Equity, Free Cash Flow.
Bear Case : ZTO
No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
FWRD profiles as a turnaround stock while ZTO is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.
FWRD carries more volatility with a beta of 1.36 — expect wider price swings.
ZTO is growing revenue faster at 23.0% — sustainability is the question.
ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (1.9B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
ZTO scores higher overall (80/100 vs 52/100), backed by strong 19.0% margins and 23.0% revenue growth. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
Forward Air Corporation
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA
Forward Air Corporation is a light freight logistics and transportation company in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Greeneville, Tennessee.
Visit Website →ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Visit Website →Compare with Other INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS Stocks
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