Hub Group Inc (HUBG)vsZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO)
HUBG
Hub Group Inc
$42.93
-1.54%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $2.54B
ZTO
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
$22.28
-1.02%
INDUSTRIALS · Cap: $17.15B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc generates 1281% more annual revenue ($51.49B vs $3.73B). ZTO leads profitability with a 17.9% profit margin vs 2.8%. ZTO appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 1.18. ZTO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 70/100 (B-).
HUBG
Buy53
out of 100
Grade: C-
ZTO
Strong Buy70
out of 100
Grade: B-
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
+3.6%
Fair Value
$44.12
Current Price
$42.93
$1.19 discount
Margin of Safety
+64.6%
Fair Value
$70.28
Current Price
$22.28
$48.00 discount
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Safe zone — low bankruptcy risk
Conservative balance sheet, low leverage
Reasonable price relative to book value
Earnings expanding 20.5% YoY
Safe zone — low bankruptcy risk
Attractively priced relative to earnings
Reasonable price relative to book value
Revenue surging 22.0% year-over-year
Generating 2.8B in free cash flow
Areas to Watch
Expensive relative to growth rate
ROE of 6.2% — below average capital efficiency
2.8% margin — thin
Operating margin of 4.2%
No major concerns identified
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : HUBG
The strongest argument for HUBG centers on Altman Z-Score, Debt/Equity, Price/Book.
Bull Case : ZTO
The strongest argument for ZTO centers on Altman Z-Score, P/E Ratio, Price/Book. Profitability is solid with margins at 17.9% and operating margin at 19.2%. Revenue growth of 22.0% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : HUBG
The primary concerns for HUBG are PEG Ratio, Return on Equity, Profit Margin. Thin 2.8% margins leave little buffer for downturns.
Bear Case : ZTO
No major red flags identified for ZTO, but monitor valuation.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
HUBG profiles as a value stock while ZTO is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.
HUBG carries more volatility with a beta of 1.26 — expect wider price swings.
ZTO is growing revenue faster at 22.0% — sustainability is the question.
ZTO generates stronger free cash flow (2.8B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
ZTO scores higher overall (70/100 vs 53/100), backed by strong 17.9% margins and 22.0% revenue growth. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
Hub Group Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · USA
Hub Group, Inc., a light asset freight management company, provides intermodal services, truck brokerage, trucking, managed transportation, cargo consolidation, warehousing, last mile delivery, international transportation, and other freight services. logistics in North America. The company is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS · China
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
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