WallStSmart

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG)vsFirst Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)

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Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc generates 855% more annual revenue ($12.14B vs $1.27B). CMG leads profitability with a 12.0% profit margin vs 1.4%. CMG trades at a lower P/E of 29.6x. FWRG earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 54/100 (C-).

CMG

Buy

54

out of 100

Grade: C-

Growth: 5.3Profit: 7.5Value: 5.0Quality: 4.5
Piotroski: 4/9Altman Z: 2.47

FWRG

Buy

54

out of 100

Grade: C-

Growth: 8.7Profit: 4.0Value: 3.7Quality: 3.0
Piotroski: 2/9Altman Z: 0.99
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Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

Intrinsic value data unavailable for CMG.

FWRGSignificantly Overvalued (-35.5%)

Margin of Safety

-35.5%

Fair Value

$12.24

Current Price

$10.18

$2.06 premium

UndervaluedFair: $12.24Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

CMG1 strengths · Avg: 10.0/10
Return on EquityProfitability
60.3%10/10

Every $100 of equity generates 60 in profit

FWRG3 strengths · Avg: 9.3/10
Price/BookValuation
1.0x10/10

Reasonable price relative to book value

EPS GrowthGrowth
2290.0%10/10

Earnings expanding 2290.0% YoY

Revenue GrowthGrowth
17.3%8/10

17.3% revenue growth

Areas to Watch

CMG4 concerns · Avg: 3.5/10
PEG RatioValuation
1.734/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

P/E RatioValuation
29.6x4/10

Moderate valuation

Price/BookValuation
15.7x4/10

Trading at 15.7x book value

EPS GrowthGrowth
-17.9%2/10

Earnings declined 17.9%

FWRG4 concerns · Avg: 3.0/10
Market CapQuality
$763.78M3/10

Smaller company, higher risk/reward

Return on EquityProfitability
2.8%3/10

ROE of 2.8% — below average capital efficiency

Profit MarginProfitability
1.4%3/10

1.4% margin — thin

Operating MarginProfitability
0.8%3/10

Operating margin of 0.8%

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : CMG

The strongest argument for CMG centers on Return on Equity.

Bull Case : FWRG

The strongest argument for FWRG centers on Price/Book, EPS Growth, Revenue Growth. Revenue growth of 17.3% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : CMG

The primary concerns for CMG are PEG Ratio, P/E Ratio, Price/Book. Debt-to-equity of 2.18 is elevated, increasing financial risk.

Bear Case : FWRG

The primary concerns for FWRG are Market Cap, Return on Equity, Profit Margin. A P/E of 44.3x leaves little room for execution misses. Thin 1.4% margins leave little buffer for downturns.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

CMG profiles as a value stock while FWRG is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.

FWRG carries more volatility with a beta of 1.06 — expect wider price swings.

FWRG is growing revenue faster at 17.3% — sustainability is the question.

CMG generates stronger free cash flow (471M), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

CMG scores higher overall (54/100 vs 54/100). Both earn "Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RESTAURANTS · USA

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., often known simply as Chipotle, is an American chain of fast casual restaurants in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, and France, specializing in tacos and Mission burritos that are made to order in front of the customer.

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First Watch Restaurant Group Inc

CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RESTAURANTS · USA

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) is a prominent player in the fast-casual dining sector, specializing in breakfast, brunch, and lunch, with a strong emphasis on health-conscious and high-quality culinary offerings. Founded in 1983, the company has cultivated a loyal customer base through an innovative and adaptable menu that reflects contemporary food trends. With a commitment to exceptional customer service and a unique dining experience, First Watch is strategically expanding its footprint in new markets, positioning itself for sustainable growth and increased shareholder value in a competitive landscape.

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