WallStSmart

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER)vsGeo Group Inc (GEO)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

Geo Group Inc generates 2349% more annual revenue ($2.83B vs $115.44M). GEO leads profitability with a 10.3% profit margin vs -10.8%. GEO earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 71/100 (B).

BAER

Hold

36

out of 100

Grade: F

Growth: 6.7Profit: 4.0Value: 5.0Quality: 4.0
Piotroski: 4/9Altman Z: -0.93

GEO

Strong Buy

71

out of 100

Grade: B

Growth: 7.3Profit: 6.5Value: 7.3Quality: 5.5
Piotroski: 5/9Altman Z: 1.72
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

Intrinsic value data unavailable for BAER.

GEOUndervalued (+68.0%)

Margin of Safety

+68.0%

Fair Value

$49.41

Current Price

$31.49

$17.92 discount

UndervaluedFair: $49.41Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

BAER1 strengths · Avg: 8.0/10
EPS GrowthGrowth
20.5%8/10

Earnings expanding 20.5% YoY

GEO4 strengths · Avg: 8.5/10
EPS GrowthGrowth
71.4%10/10

Earnings expanding 71.4% YoY

P/E RatioValuation
15.4x8/10

Attractively priced relative to earnings

Price/BookValuation
2.8x8/10

Reasonable price relative to book value

Revenue GrowthGrowth
15.1%8/10

15.1% revenue growth

Areas to Watch

BAER4 concerns · Avg: 2.3/10
Market CapQuality
$61.18M3/10

Smaller company, higher risk/reward

Return on EquityProfitability
-14.9%2/10

ROE of -14.9% — below average capital efficiency

Revenue GrowthGrowth
-0.8%2/10

Revenue declined 0.8%

Free Cash FlowQuality
$-18.47M2/10

Negative free cash flow — burning cash

GEO3 concerns · Avg: 3.7/10
PEG RatioValuation
1.934/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

Altman Z-ScoreHealth
1.724/10

Distress zone — elevated risk

Debt/EquityHealth
1.063/10

Elevated debt levels

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : BAER

The strongest argument for BAER centers on EPS Growth.

Bull Case : GEO

The strongest argument for GEO centers on EPS Growth, P/E Ratio, Price/Book. Revenue growth of 15.1% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : BAER

The primary concerns for BAER are Market Cap, Return on Equity, Revenue Growth. Debt-to-equity of 7.81 is elevated, increasing financial risk.

Bear Case : GEO

The primary concerns for GEO are PEG Ratio, Altman Z-Score, Debt/Equity.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

BAER profiles as a turnaround stock while GEO is a growth play — different risk/reward profiles.

GEO carries more volatility with a beta of 0.78 — expect wider price swings.

GEO is growing revenue faster at 15.1% — sustainability is the question.

GEO generates stronger free cash flow (194M), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

GEO scores higher overall (71/100 vs 36/100) and 15.1% revenue growth. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock

INDUSTRIALS · SECURITY & PROTECTION SERVICES · USA

Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. provides aerial wildfire management, relief and suppression, and firefighting services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Belgrade, Montana.

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Geo Group Inc

INDUSTRIALS · SECURITY & PROTECTION SERVICES · USA

The GEO Group (NYSE: GEO) is the first fully integrated capital real estate investment trust specializing in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities, processing centers and community re-entry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.

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