WallStSmart

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)vsPackaging Corp of America (PKG)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

Packaging Corp of America generates 59% more annual revenue ($9.53B vs $5.99B). PKG leads profitability with a 7.3% profit margin vs 0.7%. PKG trades at a lower P/E of 31.9x. PKG earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 54/100 (C-).

AMBP

Hold

43

out of 100

Grade: D

Growth: 8.0Profit: 4.5Value: 3.7Quality: 5.5
Piotroski: 4/9Altman Z: 0.88

PKG

Buy

54

out of 100

Grade: C-

Growth: 4.0Profit: 6.5Value: 4.3Quality: 6.5
Piotroski: 1/9Altman Z: 2.34
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

AMBPOvervalued (-12.7%)

Margin of Safety

-12.7%

Fair Value

$4.34

Current Price

$4.95

$0.61 premium

UndervaluedFair: $4.34Overvalued

Intrinsic value data unavailable for PKG.

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

AMBP3 strengths · Avg: 9.3/10
EPS GrowthGrowth
75.0%10/10

Earnings expanding 75.0% YoY

Debt/EquityHealth
-6.4210/10

Conservative balance sheet, low leverage

Revenue GrowthGrowth
17.7%8/10

17.7% revenue growth

PKG0 strengths · Avg: 0/10

No standout strengths identified

Areas to Watch

AMBP4 concerns · Avg: 2.3/10
Profit MarginProfitability
0.7%3/10

0.7% margin — thin

P/E RatioValuation
94.6x2/10

Premium valuation, high expectations priced in

Return on EquityProfitability
-63.6%2/10

ROE of -63.6% — below average capital efficiency

Free Cash FlowQuality
$-405.00M2/10

Negative free cash flow — burning cash

PKG4 concerns · Avg: 3.5/10
PEG RatioValuation
1.954/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

P/E RatioValuation
31.9x4/10

Premium valuation, high expectations priced in

Profit MarginProfitability
7.3%3/10

7.3% margin — thin

Piotroski F-ScoreQuality
1/93/10

Weak financial health signals

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : AMBP

The strongest argument for AMBP centers on EPS Growth, Debt/Equity, Revenue Growth. Revenue growth of 17.7% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bull Case : PKG

Revenue growth of 14.7% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : AMBP

The primary concerns for AMBP are Profit Margin, P/E Ratio, Return on Equity. A P/E of 94.6x leaves little room for execution misses. Thin 0.7% margins leave little buffer for downturns.

Bear Case : PKG

The primary concerns for PKG are PEG Ratio, P/E Ratio, Profit Margin.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

AMBP profiles as a growth stock while PKG is a value play — different risk/reward profiles.

PKG carries more volatility with a beta of 0.82 — expect wider price swings.

AMBP is growing revenue faster at 17.7% — sustainability is the question.

PKG generates stronger free cash flow (165M), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

PKG scores higher overall (54/100 vs 43/100) and 14.7% revenue growth. Both earn "Buy" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA

CONSUMER CYCLICAL · PACKAGING & CONTAINERS · USA

Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) is a leading global provider of sustainable metal packaging solutions, primarily for the beverage, food, and personal care industries. Leveraging an extensive network of state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities, the company is dedicated to producing innovative and high-quality packaging that meets the evolving needs of its diverse clientele. Ardagh's strong focus on sustainability and commitment to circular economy principles not only enhance its market position but also reflect a growing trend among consumers and businesses towards environmentally responsible practices, presenting significant growth potential and compelling investment opportunities for institutional investors.

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Packaging Corp of America

CONSUMER CYCLICAL · PACKAGING & CONTAINERS · USA

Packaging Corporation of America is an American manufacturing company based in Lake Forest, Illinois.

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