WallStSmart

Alcoa Corp (AA)vsMP Materials Corp (MP)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

Alcoa Corp generates 3814% more annual revenue ($13.60B vs $347.57M). AA leads profitability with a 9.4% profit margin vs -20.5%. AA earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 76/100 (B+).

AA

Strong Buy

76

out of 100

Grade: B+

Growth: 8.0Profit: 7.0Value: 4.7Quality: 6.5
Piotroski: 4/9Altman Z: 1.52

MP

Avoid

30

out of 100

Grade: F

Growth: 4.7Profit: 2.0Value: 4.7Quality: 7.5
Piotroski: 4/9Altman Z: 1.53
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

AASignificantly Overvalued (-68.4%)

Margin of Safety

-68.4%

Fair Value

$26.87

Current Price

$50.17

$23.30 premium

UndervaluedFair: $26.87Overvalued
MPOvervalued (-11.7%)

Margin of Safety

-11.7%

Fair Value

$37.04

Current Price

$51.11

$14.07 premium

UndervaluedFair: $37.04Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

AA4 strengths · Avg: 9.5/10
P/E RatioValuation
9.4x10/10

Attractively priced relative to earnings

Revenue GrowthGrowth
31.4%10/10

Revenue surging 31.4% year-over-year

EPS GrowthGrowth
146.8%10/10

Earnings expanding 146.8% YoY

Price/BookValuation
1.8x8/10

Reasonable price relative to book value

MP1 strengths · Avg: 10.0/10
Revenue GrowthGrowth
118.6%10/10

Revenue surging 118.6% year-over-year

Areas to Watch

AA2 concerns · Avg: 3.0/10
Altman Z-ScoreHealth
1.524/10

Distress zone — elevated risk

PEG RatioValuation
8.362/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

MP4 concerns · Avg: 2.5/10
Altman Z-ScoreHealth
1.534/10

Distress zone — elevated risk

Return on EquityProfitability
-3.0%2/10

ROE of -3.0% — below average capital efficiency

EPS GrowthGrowth
-55.6%2/10

Earnings declined 55.6%

Free Cash FlowQuality
$-79.28M2/10

Negative free cash flow — burning cash

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : AA

The strongest argument for AA centers on P/E Ratio, Revenue Growth, EPS Growth. Revenue growth of 31.4% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bull Case : MP

The strongest argument for MP centers on Revenue Growth. Revenue growth of 118.6% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : AA

The primary concerns for AA are Altman Z-Score, PEG Ratio.

Bear Case : MP

The primary concerns for MP are Altman Z-Score, Return on Equity, EPS Growth.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

MP carries more volatility with a beta of 1.86 — expect wider price swings.

MP is growing revenue faster at 118.6% — sustainability is the question.

AA generates stronger free cash flow (422M), providing more financial flexibility.

Monitor ALUMINUM industry trends, competitive dynamics, and regulatory changes.

Bottom Line

AA scores higher overall (76/100 vs 30/100) and 31.4% revenue growth. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Avoid" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

Alcoa Corp

BASIC MATERIALS · ALUMINUM · USA

Alcoa Corporation produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

MP Materials Corp

BASIC MATERIALS · OTHER INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINING · USA

MP Materials Corp. The company is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

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