WallStSmart

Alcoa Corp (AA)vsCentury Aluminum Company (CENX)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

Alcoa Corp generates 401% more annual revenue ($12.65B vs $2.53B). AA leads profitability with a 8.2% profit margin vs 1.6%. CENX appears more attractively valued with a PEG of 0.06. AA earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 49/100 (D+).

AA

Hold

49

out of 100

Grade: D+

Growth: 2.7Profit: 6.5Value: 4.7Quality: 5.3
Piotroski: 5/9Altman Z: 1.52

CENX

Hold

38

out of 100

Grade: F

Growth: 2.7Profit: 5.0Value: 4.7Quality: 5.0
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

AAFair Value (-2.8%)

Margin of Safety

-2.8%

Fair Value

$61.46

Current Price

$63.18

$1.72 premium

UndervaluedFair: $61.46Overvalued
CENXSignificantly Overvalued (-39.5%)

Margin of Safety

-39.5%

Fair Value

$38.30

Current Price

$58.91

$20.61 premium

UndervaluedFair: $38.30Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

AA2 strengths · Avg: 8.0/10
P/E RatioValuation
16.1x8/10

Attractively priced relative to earnings

Price/BookValuation
2.4x8/10

Reasonable price relative to book value

CENX1 strengths · Avg: 10.0/10
PEG RatioValuation
0.0610/10

Growing faster than its price suggests

Areas to Watch

AA4 concerns · Avg: 2.5/10
Altman Z-ScoreHealth
1.524/10

Distress zone — elevated risk

PEG RatioValuation
8.362/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

Revenue GrowthGrowth
-5.2%2/10

Revenue declined 5.2%

EPS GrowthGrowth
-22.7%2/10

Earnings declined 22.7%

CENX4 concerns · Avg: 3.0/10
Revenue GrowthGrowth
0.4%4/10

0.4% revenue growth

Return on EquityProfitability
1.6%3/10

ROE of 1.6% — below average capital efficiency

Profit MarginProfitability
1.6%3/10

1.6% margin — thin

P/E RatioValuation
144.2x2/10

Premium valuation, high expectations priced in

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : AA

The strongest argument for AA centers on P/E Ratio, Price/Book.

Bull Case : CENX

The strongest argument for CENX centers on PEG Ratio. PEG of 0.06 suggests the stock is reasonably priced for its growth.

Bear Case : AA

The primary concerns for AA are Altman Z-Score, PEG Ratio, Revenue Growth.

Bear Case : CENX

The primary concerns for CENX are Revenue Growth, Return on Equity, Profit Margin. A P/E of 144.2x leaves little room for execution misses. Thin 1.6% margins leave little buffer for downturns.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

CENX carries more volatility with a beta of 1.92 — expect wider price swings.

CENX is growing revenue faster at 0.4% — sustainability is the question.

CENX generates stronger free cash flow (-6M), providing more financial flexibility.

Monitor ALUMINUM industry trends, competitive dynamics, and regulatory changes.

Bottom Line

AA scores higher overall (49/100 vs 38/100). Both earn "Hold" and "Hold" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

Alcoa Corp

BASIC MATERIALS · ALUMINUM · USA

Alcoa Corporation produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Century Aluminum Company

BASIC MATERIALS · ALUMINUM · USA

Century Aluminum Company produces standard quality and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

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