ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc
NYSE: ZTO · INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS
Updated 2026-06-05
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for ZTO.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
ZTO historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in ZTO's own 5Y range.
ZTO intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
ZTO valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 13.28x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 0.33x
Is ZTO overvalued in 2026?
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) currently trades at $25.05 per share with a market capitalization of $17,152,308,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 70/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 13.3x, below its 5-year median of 15.5x. The PEG ratio of 1.18 points to a price that reasonably reflects expected earnings growth.
Looking at its own history, ZTO is currently trading cheaper than 83% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 17th percentile of its historical range, a level that has historically coincided with attractive entry points.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates ZTO's intrinsic value at $70.28 per share, against the current market price of $25.05. This implies a margin of safety of +64.58%. A meaningful cushion exists against model error, making this a reasonable risk-adjusted entry.
The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: ZTO trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 70/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is ZTO overvalued?
ZTO scores 70/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade B), a mixed overall profile. The DCF also shows a positive margin of safety, so price and fundamentals line up reasonably well.
What is ZTO's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates ZTO's intrinsic value at $70.28 per share, versus the current price of $25.05, a margin of safety of +64.58%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price below it means the market is pricing the stock below that conservative estimate.
What P/E ratio does ZTO trade at?
ZTO trades at a P/E of 13.3x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 15.5x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting below its own median means the stock is cheaper than usual relative to its earnings.
Is ZTO a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for ZTO is Buy, from a Smart Value Score of 70/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile is balanced and best suited to investors who already have a thesis. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does ZTO's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, ZTO sits in the 17th percentile of its own 5Y range, historically cheap relative to where it has traded. A low percentile means today's multiple is near the bottom of its historical band.
What is ZTO's Smart Value Score?
ZTO's Smart Value Score is 70/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.