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ZTO

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc

NYSE: ZTO · INDUSTRIALS · INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS

$25.37
-0.98% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$19.46B
P/E ratio
15.47
P/S ratio
0.40x
EPS (TTM)
$1.64
Dividend yield
2.72%
52W range
$16 – $26
Volume
1.8M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc (ZTO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$25.37
Consensus
$21,900.00
+86222.43%
2030 Target
$1,230.03
+4748.36%
DCF
$132.23
+81.18% MoS
4 analysts:
1 Buy1 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

ZTO management issued 2026 parcel volume growth guidance of 10%-13%, indicating only modest slowdown from 2025's 13% growth. No specific revenue dollar targets provided by CEO for 2026-2030 period. Company focused on quality growth over volume, with margin expansion through automation and cost efficiency as key priorities.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$2,048.40
$78.0B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$1,230.03
$78.0B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$818.36
$78.0B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$38.4B$44.3B$47.8B$55.0B$60.3B$65.7B$71.6B$78.0B
Revenue growth—15.3%7.9%12.0%9.6%9.0%9.0%9.0%
EPS$8.89$12.21$11.45$12.89$14.47$16.21$18.19$20.41
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$865.77$948.10$1,035.43$1,127.74$1,230.03

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ 2026 parcel volume growth of 10-13% driven by market expansion and e-commerce penetration
+ $1.5B share repurchase program over 24 months supporting per-share metrics
+ Automation investments and scale efficiencies improving margins despite pricing pressure
+ Market leadership in Chinese express delivery with 40%+ market share
+ Expansion into adjacent logistics segments and value-added services
Key risks
- Intense price competition in Chinese parcel market limiting margin expansion
- Parcel mix shift toward lower-margin segments affecting profitability
- Rising labor and operating costs outpacing pricing power
- Economic slowdown in China reducing parcel volume growth
- Regulatory changes affecting logistics industry structure
- Geopolitical tensions impacting cross-border logistics

Methodology

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 4 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.