Ulta Beauty Inc
NASDAQ: ULTA · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · SPECIALTY RETAIL
Updated 2026-04-29
Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for ULTA.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
ULTA historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in ULTA's own 5Y range.
ULTA intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
ULTA valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 20.66x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 1.87x
Is ULTA overvalued in 2026?
Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) currently trades at $530.23 per share with a market capitalization of $23,190,473,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 57/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 20.7x, above its 5-year median of 19.9x. The PEG ratio of 1.79 points to a price that reasonably reflects expected earnings growth.
Looking at its own history, ULTA is currently trading more expensive than 68% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 68th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates ULTA's intrinsic value at $595.03 per share, against the current market price of $530.23. This implies a premium to fair value of -14.79%. The current price sits well above what projected cash flows justify, implying investors are paying for growth that has not yet materialized.
The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: ULTA trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 57/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is ULTA overvalued in 2026?
Based on a Smart Value Score of 57/100, ULTA is fairly valued. Price reasonably reflects current fundamentals with limited cushion in either direction.
What is ULTA's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates ULTA's intrinsic value at $595.03 per share, versus the current price of $530.23. This produces a margin of safety of -14.79%.
What P/E ratio does ULTA trade at?
ULTA trades at a P/E of 20.7x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 19.9x.
Is ULTA a buy based on valuation?
WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 57/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile is balanced. Best suited for investors with an existing thesis.
How does ULTA's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, ULTA currently sits in the 68th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is above its long-run median relative to where it has traded over the period.
What is ULTA's Smart Value Score?
ULTA's Smart Value Score is 57/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.