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ULTA

Ulta Beauty Inc

NASDAQ: ULTA · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · SPECIALTY RETAIL

$530.23
-1.47% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$23.19B
P/E ratio
20.66
P/S ratio
1.87x
EPS (TTM)
$25.66
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$386 – $715
Volume
0.7M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$530.23
Consensus
$669.38
+26.24%
2030 Target
$4,514.08
+751.34%
DCF
$595.03
-14.79% MoS
23 analysts:
8 Buy7 Hold1 Sell

Management guidance

Ulta management guided FY2026 revenue of $13.46B (8.61% growth) and FY2027 revenue of $14.13B (4.94% growth). CEO Kecia Steelman emphasized cautious outlook due to global uncertainty and consumer focus on value, but highlighted strategic initiatives including doubled ship-from-store capabilities (1,000+ locations), K-Beauty expansion, and AI-powered fulfillment to drive future growth.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$7,469.72
$16.6B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$4,514.08
$16.6B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$3,009.38
$16.6B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2024202520262027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$11.2B$11.3B$12.4B$14.1B$14.8B$15.7B$16.6B
Revenue growth—0.8%9.7%4.9%4.9%5.8%5.8%
EPS$26.05$17.62$25.63$31.62$33.95$36.42$38.95
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$3,815.47$4,030.43$4,245.38$4,514.08

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Doubled store fulfillment network (1,000+ locations) with AI order management driving e-commerce growth
+ K-Beauty World platform expansion enabling faster viral brand-to-shelf transitions
+ New Chief Strategy & Growth Officer appointment (Kristin Wolf) with expanded AI integration mandate
+ Erly Skincare launch in 750 stores testing Gen Z/Gen Alpha minimalist skincare demand
+ New distribution center buildout enhancing supply chain capacity
+ Conscious Beauty and loyalty ecosystem strengthening younger consumer retention
Key risks
- Global geopolitical uncertainty and consumer shift toward value/discounting pressuring margins
- FY2026 guidance miss on earnings (despite revenue beat) triggering stock selloff and analyst skepticism
- Intensified competition from e.l.f. Beauty (strong Gen Z positioning) and direct-to-consumer brands
- Consumer cyclical sensitivity—discretionary beauty spending vulnerable to economic slowdown
- Slowing growth trajectory: FY2026 guidance of 8.61% down from historical 15% 5Y CAGR
- Tariff and inflationary pressures on product costs and supply chain economics

Methodology

Ulta Beauty Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 23 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.