PAAS
Pan American Silver Corp.
NYSE: PAAS · BASIC MATERIALS · GOLD
$48.14
+3.46% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$23.26B
P/E ratio
17.41
P/S ratio
5.81x
EPS (TTM)
$3.17
Dividend yield
0.97%
52W range
$26 – $70
Volume
5.0M
Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed PAAS price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$48.14
Today
Analyst consensus
$68.00
+41.25% · 12M
2030 Base
$88.22
+83.26% future
NPV today
$50.84
@ 13% WACC
10 analysts:
8 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Pan American Silver has not issued specific revenue targets through 2030, but management raised FY2026 production guidance and lowered cash-cost outlook in Q1 2026 earnings. The company targets 35-40% free cash flow returns to shareholders and announced the Enhanced Shareholder Return Framework targeting up to $1B in shareholder returns in 2026. La Colorada Skarn expansion PEA projects $2.6B NPV5 with 17% IRR over 37-year mine life, implying significant long-term production growth from this single project.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
PAAS · Pan American Silver Corp. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$32.21
NPV today: $18.56
Base case (2030)
$88.22
NPV today: $50.84
Bull case (2030)
$172.24
NPV today: $99.26
WallStSmart.com
PAAS financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.7B | $5.9B | $7.1B | $8.7B | $10.2B | $11.8B |
| Revenue growth | 30.6% | 63.5% | 20.0% | 21.8% | 17.9% | 15.7% |
| Net margin | — | 33.8% | 32.6% | 33.1% | 33.5% | 33.6% |
| EPS | $2.53 | $4.75 | $5.50 | $6.80 | $8.10 | $9.40 |
| Diluted shares | — | 421M | 421M | 421M | 421M | 421M |
| Net debt | — | $-286.75M | $-566.14M | $-906.52M | $-1.31B | $-1.77B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $42.83 | $51.90 | $63.74 | $75.73 | $88.22 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.8B | $11.8B | $11.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 421M | 421M | 421M |
| Net debt | $-1.77B | $-1.77B | $-1.77B |
| Implied P/E † | 3x | 9x | 18x |
| 2030 Price | $32.21 | $88.22 | $172.24 |
| NPV @ 13% | $18.56 | $50.84 | $99.26 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because PAAS is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $88.22 base case
PAAS catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ La Colorada Skarn mine expansion (PEA filed; $2.6B NPV project) entering development phase 2027-2028, adding 15,000 tpd processing capacity
+ Juanicipio mine ramp-up (joint venture with First Majestic) contributing material silver/gold production from 2026 onward
+ Silver price environment sustained above $80/oz support (historically bullish for PAAS margins given 31.7% profit margin)
+ Investor Day June 1, 2026 likely to detail updated 2026-2030 production and development timeline for La Colorada and other growth projects
+ Free cash flow generation ($488M in Q1 2026 alone) enabling aggressive shareholder returns + debt paydown, signaling balance sheet strength
Key risks
- Commodity price volatility: silver and gold prices directly drive revenue; 10% pullback in metal prices = ~$400M annual revenue impact at current scale
- Mexico geopolitical/regulatory risk: significant production and La Colorada expansion exposed to cartel activity, permitting delays, tax changes
- La Colorada capital intensity: $1.9B capex requirement for skarn expansion creates execution risk; delays or cost overruns could push peak production to 2029-2030 instead of 2028
- Mining cost inflation and supply chain disruptions (critical for sustaining 31.7% profit margins)
- Currency headwinds: CAD/USD and MXN fluctuations affect reported revenues and margins
Methodology · Pan American Silver Corp. 2030 stock forecast model
Pan American Silver Corp. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 10 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for PAAS by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.77B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 13% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.486) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
PAAS price target FAQ
What is the PAAS price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Pan American Silver Corp. 2030 base case is $88.22 per share, with a bull case of $172.24 and bear case of $32.21. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 13% WACC is $50.84.
How is the Pan American Silver Corp. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The PAAS 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the PAAS price target account for dilution?
Pan American Silver Corp. is projected to grow diluted share count from 421M to 421M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on PAAS stock?
10 analysts cover PAAS with an average 12-month price target of $68.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.