MTDR
Matador Resources Company
NYSE: MTDR · ENERGY · OIL & GAS E&P
$56.33
-3.91% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$6.71B
P/E ratio
13.93
P/S ratio
1.87x
EPS (TTM)
$3.88
Dividend yield
2.56%
52W range
$36 – $66
Volume
1.8M
Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MTDR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$56.33
Today
Analyst consensus
$68.84
+22.21% · 12M
2030 Base
$61.92
+9.92% future
NPV today
$41.80
@ 9% WACC
21 analysts:
11 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Joseph Wm. Foran emphasized disciplined capital spending, production growth, and debt reduction in Q1 2026 earnings. Management increased full-year 2026 production guidance and highlighted the strategic importance of San Mateo midstream monetization and Woodford shale development, but provided no specific 2026-2030 revenue targets in available guidance.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MTDR · Matador Resources Company · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$61.92
NPV today: $41.80
Base case (2030)
$61.92
NPV today: $41.80
Bull case (2030)
$124.27
NPV today: $83.88
WallStSmart.com
MTDR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.7B | $4.3B | $5.1B | $6.0B | $6.9B | $7.8B |
| Revenue growth | 5.1% | 16.9% | 19.6% | 17.5% | 15.3% | 12.6% |
| Net margin | — | 21.8% | 23.9% | 24.7% | 24.5% | 24.2% |
| EPS | $5.75 | $7.50 | $9.80 | $11.90 | $13.60 | $15.10 |
| Diluted shares | — | 124M | 125M | 125M | 125M | 125M |
| Net debt | — | $2.85B | $2.30B | $1.65B | $897.48M | $53.90M |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $11.51 | $22.65 | $35.01 | $48.27 | $61.92 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.8B | $7.8B | $7.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 125M | 125M | 125M |
| Net debt | $53.90M | $53.90M | $53.90M |
| Implied P/E † | 4x | 4x | 8x |
| 2030 Price | $61.92 | $61.92 | $124.27 |
| NPV @ 9% | $41.80 | $41.80 | $83.88 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MTDR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $61.92 base case
MTDR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ San Mateo midstream capacity expansion and potential monetization driving margin improvement
+ Woodford shale well development ramping production in 2026-2027
+ Oil and natural gas price recovery above current $70-80 WTI assumption
+ Delaware Basin operational efficiency gains and AI-driven cost reduction
Key risks
- Commodity price volatility (Q1 2026 revenue down 33.8% YoY due to lower prices despite volume growth)
- Geopolitical oil price shocks (Iran peace talks in May 2026 caused 3.7% WTI decline)
- Net margin compression from 25.4% to 20.8% (FY2025) limiting profitability leverage
- High debt levels ($11.1B enterprise value vs. $7.39B market cap) constraining capital allocation flexibility
- Regulatory risk in Delaware Basin operations
Methodology · Matador Resources Company 2030 stock forecast model
Matador Resources Company 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 21 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for MTDR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($53.90M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.803) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
MTDR price target FAQ
What is the MTDR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Matador Resources Company 2030 base case is $61.92 per share, with a bull case of $124.27 and bear case of $61.92. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $41.80.
How is the Matador Resources Company 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MTDR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MTDR price target account for dilution?
Matador Resources Company is projected to grow diluted share count from 124M to 125M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on MTDR stock?
21 analysts cover MTDR with an average 12-month price target of $68.84. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.