Mercury Systems Inc

Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) trades at $80.61, on a P/S of 4.9x. Those multiples show what the market is paying for each dollar of earnings and sales, which is the real starting point for judging whether the price is reasonable.

Mercury Systems Inc carries a Smart Value Score of 32/100 (Grade F), which we rate Strong Sell. That score blends growth, quality, and valuation into one read. On valuation specifically, our conservative DCF puts intrinsic value at $58.26 against the $80.61 price, so on cash flow terms the market is paying a premium for Mercury Systems Inc's growth. The Strong Sell rating reflects that growth and quality, while the DCF flags that the price already assumes a lot.

The 12-month analyst consensus target is $89.89, about 11.5% above the current $80.61. A consensus target is the average of Wall Street's 12-month forecasts, so it works as a sentiment gauge rather than a guarantee, and it resets with every earnings cycle.

Our research-backed model puts the 2030 base case at $88.77, built from revenue projections, a growth-adjusted P/S multiple, net debt, and share dilution. It is a scenario rather than a prediction, and the bull and bear cases around it matter more than the single number when you are sizing a position.

Our DCF model estimates intrinsic value at $58.26, a -37.9% margin of safety versus today's $80.61. Intrinsic value is what the projected cash flows are worth today. A negative reading means the price is running ahead of that conservative estimate, leaving little downside cushion if growth slows.

Mercury Systems Inc's trailing twelve-month revenue is $983.62M, and our model projects it reaching about $1.75B by 2030. Revenue scale anchors the valuation multiples and shows whether growth is reaching the top line, so it is best read alongside margin and growth trends to see if that revenue is getting more profitable over time.

Mercury Systems Inc's Altman Z-Score is 1.97, which places it in the grey zone. The Altman Z-Score gauges bankruptcy risk from profitability, leverage, and asset efficiency, and a higher reading points to lower financial distress risk.