MRCY
Mercury Systems Inc
NASDAQ: MRCY · INDUSTRIALS · AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
$91.95
-5.56% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$7.22B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
7.47x
EPS (TTM)
$-0.23
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$49 – $121
Volume
0.6M
Mercury Systems Inc (MRCY) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MRCY price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$91.95
Today
Analyst consensus
$89.89
-2.24% · 12M
2030 Base
$88.77
-3.46% future
NPV today
$59.41
@ 9% WACC
10 analysts:
5 Buy3 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
Mercury Systems raised FY2026 guidance to mid-single-digit revenue growth (approximately 7-9% based on Q3 execution). Management projects mid-teens adjusted EBITDA margins expansion. CEO emphasizes organic growth drivers, performance excellence, and margin initiatives with no specific multi-year revenue targets disclosed in recent earnings calls.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MRCY · Mercury Systems Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$32.12
NPV today: $21.50
Base case (2030)
$88.77
NPV today: $59.41
Bull case (2030)
$173.74
NPV today: $116.29
WallStSmart.com
MRCY financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.9B | $1.0B | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.8B |
| Revenue growth | 9.2% | 7.3% | 15.2% | 17.5% | 16.5% | 13.5% |
| Net margin | — | 6.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 13.9% |
| EPS | $0.42 | $1.05 | $1.75 | $2.48 | $3.22 | $3.95 |
| Diluted shares | — | 60M | 61M | 61M | 62M | 62M |
| Net debt | — | $-34.20M | $-73.60M | $-119.92M | $-173.89M | $-235.16M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $49.14 | $56.79 | $66.90 | $78.04 | $88.77 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 62M | 62M | 62M |
| Net debt | $-235.16M | $-235.16M | $-235.16M |
| Implied P/E † | 8x | 23x | 44x |
| 2030 Price | $32.12 | $88.77 | $173.74 |
| NPV @ 9% | $21.50 | $59.41 | $116.29 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MRCY is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $88.77 base case
MRCY catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Record backlog of $1.60B (75% visibility into revenue conversion over next 12-24 months)
+ Record Q3 bookings of $348.3M driven by defense modernization and space programs (SDA Tranche 3 L3Harris contract)
+ $99B+ U.S. defense industrial base recapitalization and AI/drone defense spending surge through 2030
+ Margin expansion initiatives targeting mid-teens adjusted EBITDA margins (currently ~12-13%)
+ Pentagon $900B+ budget allocation emphasizing electronic warfare, sensor fusion, and mission-critical processing
Key risks
- Profitability remains challenged (TTM EPS -$0.23, still unprofitable on GAAP basis despite margin progress)
- Legacy low-margin contracts and accelerated prior-year deliveries creating near-term earnings headwinds
- Insider selling activity (Jana Partners reduced stake 17.2% in May 2026; director Orlando Carvalho sold $625K in stock at $89.36)
- Valuation disconnect: stock at $94.81 vs. DCF fair value estimates ranging $43-$64 (2-3.5x premium)
- Execution risk on backlog conversion and margin realization in competitive defense electronics market
Methodology · Mercury Systems Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Mercury Systems Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 10 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for MRCY by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-235.16M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.83) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
MRCY price target FAQ
What is the MRCY price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Mercury Systems Inc 2030 base case is $88.77 per share, with a bull case of $173.74 and bear case of $32.12. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $59.41.
How is the Mercury Systems Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MRCY 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MRCY price target account for dilution?
Mercury Systems Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 60M to 62M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on MRCY stock?
10 analysts cover MRCY with an average 12-month price target of $89.89. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.