Harley-Davidson Inc
NYSE: HOG · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RECREATIONAL VEHICLES
Updated 2026-04-29
Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for HOG.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
HOG historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in HOG's own 5Y range.
HOG intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
HOG valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 8.50x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 0.59x
Is HOG overvalued in 2026?
Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) currently trades at $23.62 per share with a market capitalization of $2,641,910,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 59/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 8.5x, above its 5-year median of 8.3x. The PEG ratio of 5.30 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.
Looking at its own history, HOG is currently trading more expensive than 60% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 60th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates HOG's intrinsic value at $40.10 per share, against the current market price of $23.62. This implies a margin of safety of +48.68%. A meaningful cushion exists against model error, making this a reasonable risk-adjusted entry.
Financial quality is a concern. The Piotroski F-Score of 0/9 flags weakening fundamentals that deserve closer scrutiny before the valuation case can be fully trusted.
Bottom line: HOG trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 59/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is HOG overvalued in 2026?
Based on a Smart Value Score of 59/100, HOG is fairly valued. Price reasonably reflects current fundamentals with limited cushion in either direction.
What is HOG's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates HOG's intrinsic value at $40.10 per share, versus the current price of $23.62. This produces a margin of safety of +48.68%.
What P/E ratio does HOG trade at?
HOG trades at a P/E of 8.5x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 8.3x.
Is HOG a buy based on valuation?
WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 59/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile is balanced. Best suited for investors with an existing thesis.
How does HOG's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, HOG currently sits in the 60th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is above its long-run median relative to where it has traded over the period.
What is HOG's Smart Value Score?
HOG's Smart Value Score is 59/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.