Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) Stock Analysis — PE Ratio, PS Ratio, Intrinsic Value & 2030 Price Target
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc stock (ARI) is currently trading at $10.47. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc PE ratio is 12.42. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc PS ratio (Price-to-Sales) is 5.23. Analyst consensus price target for ARI is $11.62. WallStSmart rates ARI as Underperform.
- ARI PE ratio analysis and historical PE chart
- ARI PS ratio (Price-to-Sales) history and trend
- ARI intrinsic value — DCF, Graham Number, EPV models
- ARI stock price prediction 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
- ARI fair value vs current price
- ARI insider transactions and insider buying
- Is ARI undervalued or overvalued?
- Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc financial analysis — revenue, earnings, cash flow
- ARI Piotroski F-Score and Altman Z-Score
- ARI analyst price target and Smart Rating
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc
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ARI Intrinsic Value Analysis for Value Investors
Benjamin Graham Formula · Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI)
ARI trades 94% above its Graham fair value of $5.51, indicating the stock may be overvalued at current levels.
Based on Benjamin Graham Formula. Growth rate capped at 25%. For informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Smart Analysis
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) · 10 metrics scored
Smart Score
Category Performance
WallStSmart pulls financial metrics like revenue growth, profit margins, and valuation ratios and scores each one from 0 to 10 based on how strong or weak it is. Those 10 scores are grouped into 4 categories: Growth, Profitability, Valuation, and Quality — which form the 4 axes of the spider chart you see. The categories are then combined into a final score out of 100, but not equally. Growth and Profitability together count for 60% of the total, because a fast-growing profitable business matters more than just a cheap one. That final number maps to a rating (Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Avoid) and a letter grade, giving you one clear Stock Rating.
Investment Thesis
Strong fundamentals in operating margin, price/book, profit margin. Concerns around peg ratio and return on equity. Fundamentals are solid but monitor weak areas for improvement.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) Key Strengths (4)
Keeps $39 of every $100 in revenue after operating costs
Trading below book value, meaning the market prices it less than net assets
Keeps $47 of every $100 in revenue as net profit
69.92% held by institutions, strong professional interest
Supporting Valuation Data
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) Areas to Watch (6)
Revenue declining -1.30%, a shrinking business
Earnings declining -31.00%, profits shrinking
Very expensive relative to growth, significant premium
Low profitability relative to shareholder equity
Premium valuation at 5.2x annual revenue
Small-cap company with higher risk but more growth potential
Supporting Valuation Data
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) Detailed Analysis Report
Overall Assessment
This company scores 52/100 in our Smart Analysis, earning a C- grade. Out of 10 metrics analyzed, 4 register as strengths (avg 9.5/10) while 6 fall into concern territory (avg 2.3/10). The category breakdown reveals uneven performance, with some areas requiring attention.
The Bull Case
The strongest argument centers on Operating Margin, Price/Book, Profit Margin. Valuation metrics including Price/Book (0.76) suggest the stock is attractively priced. Profitability is solid with Operating Margin at 38.60%, Profit Margin at 47.20%.
The Bear Case
The primary concerns are Revenue Growth, EPS Growth, PEG Ratio. Some valuation metrics including PEG Ratio (33.37), Price/Sales (5.23) suggest expensive pricing. Growth concerns include Revenue Growth at -1.30%, EPS Growth at -31.00%, which may limit upside. Profitability pressure is visible in Return on Equity at 6.79%.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
Three factors to monitor going forward. First, whether Revenue Growth improves, as this is the primary drag on the overall score. Second, margin trajectory, with Return on Equity at 6.79% needing improvement to support the investment thesis. Third, growth sustainability, with Revenue Growth at -1.30% needing to reaccelerate.
Risk Considerations
Based on the metric profile, this is a moderate-to-high risk investment. There are more areas of concern than strength, warranting a more conservative position size. Investors should size positions according to their risk tolerance and maintain diversification.
Bottom Line
Mixed fundamentals with both positives (Operating Margin, Price/Book) and negatives (Revenue Growth, EPS Growth). A cautious approach is warranted. Monitor for improvement in weak areas before increasing conviction.
Disclaimer: Smart Analysis is a scoring system developed by WallStSmart Team. Scores update daily using multi-model valuation framework. Always conduct your own research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.
ARI Price-to-Sales(PS) Ratio Chart
Historical valuation based on market cap ÷ trailing 12-month revenue
ARI's Price-to-Sales ratio of 5.23x trades at a deep discount to its historical average of 279.26x (30th percentile). The current valuation is 100% below its historical high of 4521.9x set in Apr 2010, and 231% above its historical low of 1.58x in Oct 2024. Over the past 12 months, the PS ratio has expanded from ~1.9x, reflecting growing market expectations outpacing revenue growth.
WallStSmart Analysis Synopsis
Data-driven financial summary for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc (ARI) · REAL ESTATE › REIT - MORTGAGE
The Big Picture
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc faces headwinds with declining revenue, though profitability provides a cushion. Revenue reached 268M with 1% decline year-over-year. Profit margins are strong at 47.2%, reflecting pricing power and operational efficiency.
Key Findings
Profit margin of 47.2% and operating margin of 38.6% demonstrate strong pricing power and operational efficiency.
Free cash flow is -10M, meaning the company is burning cash. This may be acceptable for high-growth companies investing heavily.
What to Watch Next
Dividend sustainability with a current yield of 9.6%. Watch payout ratio and free cash flow coverage.
Volatility is elevated with a beta of 1.56, so expect amplified moves relative to the broader market.
Sector dynamics: monitor REIT - MORTGAGE industry trends, competitive moves, and regulatory changes that could impact Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc.
Bottom Line
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc faces challenges with declining revenue. While profitability provides a buffer, the long-term trajectory needs to improve. Watch for management's strategic response and whether the company can stabilize or pivot to new growth drivers.
This synopsis is generated from publicly available financial data. It is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Insider Transactions
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About Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc(ARI)
NYSE
REAL ESTATE
REIT - MORTGAGE
USA
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinated financings, and other real estate-related commercial debt investments in the United States. . The company is headquartered in New York, New York.