ALNY
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc
NASDAQ: ALNY · HEALTHCARE · BIOTECHNOLOGY
$284.84
-0.19% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$37.76B
P/E ratio
70.89
P/S ratio
8.81x
EPS (TTM)
$3.99
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$282 – $496
Volume
1.1M
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc (ALNY) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ALNY price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$284.84
Today
Analyst consensus
$446.81
+56.86% · 12M
2030 Base
$413.45
+45.15% future
NPV today
$313.32
@ 6% WACC
29 analysts:
20 Buy6 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Alnylam reaffirmed FY2026 TTR revenue guidance of $4.4-4.7 billion (implying total company revenue ~$5.7-6.0B), driven by AMVUTTRA expansion and international launches. Management projects significant revenue and earnings growth through 2028, with nucresiran (next-gen TTR product) expected to contribute meaningfully. CEO Yvonne Greenstreet has indicated transition from TTR-focused to pipeline-diversified growth strategy with multiple Phase 3 readouts expected in H2 2026.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ALNY · Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$109.58
NPV today: $83.04
Base case (2030)
$413.45
NPV today: $313.32
Bull case (2030)
$818.60
NPV today: $620.35
WallStSmart.com
ALNY financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.7B | $5.7B | $7.5B | $9.7B | $11.8B | $13.9B |
| Revenue growth | 65.2% | 54.7% | 31.2% | 28.1% | 22.8% | 17.5% |
| Net margin | — | 17.3% | 20.0% | 20.9% | 21.0% | 21.1% |
| EPS | $4.46 | $7.37 | $11.15 | $14.80 | $18.20 | $21.40 |
| Diluted shares | — | 134M | 135M | 136M | 137M | 137M |
| Net debt | — | $1.51B | $3.48B | $6.02B | $9.13B | $12.78B |
| P/S multiple | — | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $202.26 | $252.61 | $310.39 | $366.54 | $413.45 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.9B | $13.9B | $13.9B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 5.0x | 9.0x |
| Diluted shares | 137M | 137M | 137M |
| Net debt | $12.78B | $12.78B | $12.78B |
| Implied P/E † | 5x | 19x | 38x |
| 2030 Price | $109.58 | $413.45 | $818.60 |
| NPV @ 6% | $83.04 | $313.32 | $620.35 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ALNY is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $413.45 base case
ALNY catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ AMVUTTRA market penetration acceleration in TTR-CM (cardiomyopathy) — Q1 2026 TTR revenue $910M, targeting $4.4-4.7B FY2026; international expansion in EU/Japan/rest of world
+ Vutrisiran (HELIOS-B Phase 3) positive data for ATTR-CM as first-line therapy; nucresiran Phase 3 readout expected H2 2026 with potential for higher margins and TTR franchise extension
+ Pipeline diversification: Phase 3 readouts for zilebesiran (hypertension), patisiran expansions, and undisclosed programs reducing TTR revenue concentration risk by 2027-2028
Key risks
- AMVUTTRA pricing pressure from payers/governments; TTR franchise concentration (>75% of revenue) creates execution risk if ATTR-CM market uptake decelerates or competitive RNAi therapies emerge
- Regulatory delays on pipeline programs (nucresiran, zilebesiran); negative Phase 3 data on upcoming readouts could materially compress 2027-2028 projections
- Royalty obligations to Genzyme/Sanofi (AMVUTTRA royalties ~20-25% of gross) and debt burden ($1.28B net debt) limit upside leverage on operating margin expansion
Methodology · Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 29 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (3% cumulative for ALNY by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($12.78B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 6% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.302) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 5.0x / bull 9.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ALNY price target FAQ
What is the ALNY price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 base case is $413.45 per share, with a bull case of $818.60 and bear case of $109.58. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 6% WACC is $313.32.
How is the Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ALNY 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ALNY price target account for dilution?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 134M to 137M by 2030 (a 3% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 3%.
What is the analyst consensus on ALNY stock?
29 analysts cover ALNY with an average 12-month price target of $446.81. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.