AFL
Aflac Incorporated
NYSE: AFL · FINANCIAL SERVICES · INSURANCE - LIFE
$115.48
+2.56% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$57.84B
P/E ratio
13.00
P/S ratio
3.19x
EPS (TTM)
$8.74
Dividend yield
2.10%
52W range
$95 – $119
Volume
2.3M
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed AFL price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$115.48
Today
Analyst consensus
$110.09
-4.67% · 12M
2030 Base
—
— future
NPV today
—
@ — WACC
11 analysts:
1 Buy7 Hold4 Sell
Management guidance
No specific revenue targets disclosed. CEO Daniel Amos has reiterated dividend increases (5.2% announced for Q1 2026) and strategic initiatives in Japan and U.S. broker channels, but has not provided explicit 2026-2030 revenue guidance. Recent reinsurance deal with Japan Post Insurance signals diversification strategy.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
AFL · Aflac Incorporated · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Base case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
Bull case (2030)
—
NPV today: —
WallStSmart.com
AFL financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.4B | $17.1B | $17.4B | $17.6B | $17.9B | $18.3B |
| Revenue growth | -8.8% | -0.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
| Net margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $8.09 | $7.43 | $7.85 | $8.15 | $8.50 | $8.85 |
| Diluted shares | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net debt | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P/S multiple | — | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x | 2.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $386.68 | $397.73 | $408.78 | $408.78 | $419.82 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.3B | $18.3B | $18.3B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 2.0x | 3.0x |
| Diluted shares | 0M | 0M | 0M |
| Net debt | — | — | — |
| Implied P/E † | — | — | — |
| 2030 Price | $— | $— | $— |
| NPV @ — | $— | $— | $— |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because AFL is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $— base case
AFL catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Japan market momentum and product refresh driving growth
+ Broker-led U.S. distribution expansion (Workday Wellness partnership)
+ Third-party reinsurance expansion (Japan Post Insurance agreement marks first external deal)
+ Digital distribution initiatives and long-term care rider launches
+ Consistent 42-year dividend increase streak attracts income investors
Key risks
- Negative 5-year revenue CAGR (-4.7%) reflects structural headwinds in U.S. supplemental insurance market
- FY2025 revenue declined 9.3% YoY to $17.16B; analyst consensus shows near-flat growth (0.2% decline 2026, 1.6% growth 2027)
- Operating cash flow trending downward; analyst ratings skew neutral/bearish (7 Hold, 3 Sell vs. 1 Buy)
- Japan Post Holdings divesting shares (trimmed stake by ~$2.2M in April 2026) suggests confidence concerns from major shareholder
- Currency headwinds and persistency pressure in mature markets
- Declining EPS despite flat/positive revenue (21.2% profit margin declining trend)
Methodology · Aflac Incorporated 2030 stock forecast model
Aflac Incorporated 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (-100% cumulative for AFL by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory (— by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using — WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 2.0x / bull 3.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.
AFL price target FAQ
How is the Aflac Incorporated 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The AFL 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
What is the analyst consensus on AFL stock?
11 analysts cover AFL with an average 12-month price target of $110.09. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.