Alcoa Corp
NYSE: AA · BASIC MATERIALS · ALUMINUM
Updated 2026-07-30
Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for AA.
Valued
Fundamentals support the current valuation. Strong combination of growth, quality, and price.
AA historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in AA's own 5Y range.
AA intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
AA valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 11.28x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 0.85x
Is AA overvalued in 2026?
Alcoa Corp (AA) currently trades at $44.97 per share with a market capitalization of $11,605,969,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock looks attractively valued with a Smart Value Score of 76/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 11.3x, below its 5-year median of 16.7x. The PEG ratio of 8.36 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.
Looking at its own history, AA is currently trading cheaper than 88% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 13th percentile of its historical range, a level that has historically coincided with attractive entry points.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates AA's intrinsic value at $26.87 per share, against the current market price of $44.97. This implies a premium to fair value of -65.09%. The current price sits well above what projected cash flows justify, implying investors are paying for growth that has not yet materialized.
The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: AA looks attractively valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 76/100. The combination of reasonable price, healthy growth, and quality fundamentals makes it worth serious consideration.
Frequently asked questions
Is AA overvalued?
AA scores 76/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade B+), a strong overall profile. On valuation specifically, the DCF puts intrinsic value below the current price, so the stock is expensive on cash flow today. The score reflects growth and quality carrying it, not a cheap entry point.
What is AA's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates AA's intrinsic value at $26.87 per share, versus the current price of $44.97, a margin of safety of -65.09%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price above it means the market is paying up for growth the model does not yet assume.
What P/E ratio does AA trade at?
AA trades at a P/E of 11.3x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 16.7x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting below its own median means the stock is cheaper than usual relative to its earnings.
Is AA a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for AA is Buy, from a Smart Value Score of 76/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The rating leans on growth and financial strength, and valuation is usually the weakest leg for a name scoring this high. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does AA's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, AA sits in the 13th percentile of its own 5Y range, historically cheap relative to where it has traded. A low percentile means today's multiple is near the bottom of its historical band.
What is AA's Smart Value Score?
AA's Smart Value Score is 76/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.