Alcoa Corp
NYSE: AA · BASIC MATERIALS · ALUMINUM
Updated 2026-04-29
Alcoa Corp (AA) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for AA.
Current price exceeds what fundamentals support. Risk/reward skewed unfavorably.
AA historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in AA's own 5Y range.
AA intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
AA valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 16.02x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 1.30x
Is AA overvalued in 2026?
Alcoa Corp (AA) currently trades at $62.46 per share with a market capitalization of $16,480,857,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock appears richly valued with a Smart Value Score of 49/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 16.0x, below its 5-year median of 16.9x. The PEG ratio of 8.36 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.
Looking at its own history, AA is currently trading cheaper than 68% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 32th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates AA's intrinsic value at $61.06 per share, against the current market price of $62.46. This implies a premium to fair value of -3.42%. The stock is priced close to its estimated fair value, offering limited upside without further operational improvement.
The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: AA appears richly valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 49/100. At current levels the risk/reward is skewed against the buyer. A materially lower price or significant operational improvement would be needed to change the picture.
Frequently asked questions
Is AA overvalued in 2026?
Based on a Smart Value Score of 49/100, AA appears overvalued. Current price exceeds what fundamentals currently justify.
What is AA's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates AA's intrinsic value at $61.06 per share, versus the current price of $62.46. This produces a margin of safety of -3.42%.
What P/E ratio does AA trade at?
AA trades at a P/E of 16.0x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 16.9x.
Is AA a buy based on valuation?
WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 49/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile skews cautious. Consider waiting for a better price or clearer operational improvement.
How does AA's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, AA currently sits in the 32th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is below its long-run median relative to where it has traded over the period.
What is AA's Smart Value Score?
AA's Smart Value Score is 49/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.