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AA

Alcoa Corp

NYSE: AA · BASIC MATERIALS · ALUMINUM

$62.46
-1.12% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$16.48B
P/E ratio
16.02
P/S ratio
1.30x
EPS (TTM)
$3.90
Dividend yield
0.47%
52W range
$24 – $76
Volume
6.0M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Alcoa Corp (AA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$62.46
Consensus
$53.82
-13.83%
2030 Target
$738.50
+1082.36%
DCF
$61.06
-3.42% MoS
11 analysts:
5 Buy5 Hold3 Sell

Management guidance

Alcoa management has not disclosed specific revenue targets for 2026-2030. However, the company guided to 2026 alumina production of 9.7-9.9 million tons and indicated confidence in sustained demand from EV and aerospace applications. Management is executing strategic initiatives including asset monetization (10 closed sites to data center industry) and carbon-free smelting technology development, but no explicit revenue guidance was provided for the forecast period.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$1,235.57
$16.4B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$738.50
$16.4B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$497.07
$16.4B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$10.7B$11.9B$12.8B$14.5B$14.7B$15.1B$15.8B$16.4B
Revenue growth—11.1%7.9%13.2%1.0%3.0%4.2%4.3%
EPS$-2.28$0.96$3.78$4.62$5.35$5.80$6.25$6.72
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$653.29$660.39$681.70$710.10$738.50

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Middle East aluminum supply disruptions driving prices higher and creating margin expansion opportunity
+ Strategic data center asset sales (10 closed industrial sites) expected to generate cash and unlock non-core value
+ Alumina segment strength with 9.7-9.9M tons 2026 production guidance; 5% Q4 2025 growth in third-party shipments
+ AI infrastructure pivot leveraging existing smelter sites and proximity to power sources
+ US tariff policy on aluminum imports supporting domestic pricing and Alcoa's North American margin profile
+ Green energy transition driving demand for aerospace-grade and low-carbon aluminum products
Key risks
- Cyclical aluminum commodity exposure: Recent aluminum futures decline following eased Middle East supply risks pressured stock 8.6% in late March 2026
- Execution risk on data center asset monetization strategy; first transaction expected by June 2026 but realizable value uncertain
- Carbon-free smelting technology deployment timeline and capex requirements not yet fully detailed
- Tariff policy reversal or rollback could reduce domestic margin protection; Trump administration mulling steel/aluminum tariff adjustments
- Analyst consensus price target $53.82 vs. current $71.01 implies 24% downside risk; mixed analyst sentiment with recent downgrades
- Geopolitical volatility: Significant recent moves tied to Iran conflict; normalization would reduce supply premium supporting prices

Methodology

Alcoa Corp's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 11 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.