WallStSmart

American Express Company (AXP)vsUpstart Holdings Inc (UPST)

VS

Smart Verdict

WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison

American Express Company generates 6127% more annual revenue ($66.97B vs $1.08B). AXP leads profitability with a 16.2% profit margin vs 5.0%. AXP trades at a lower P/E of 19.6x. AXP earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 66/100 (B-).

AXP

Strong Buy

66

out of 100

Grade: B-

Growth: 7.3Profit: 8.0Value: 10.0Quality: 5.0
Piotroski: 4/9Altman Z: 0.13

UPST

Buy

51

out of 100

Grade: C-

Growth: 6.7Profit: 4.5Value: 3.0Quality: 5.8
Piotroski: 5/9Altman Z: 0.83
IV

Intrinsic Value Comparison

Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula

AXPUndervalued (+41.4%)

Margin of Safety

+41.4%

Fair Value

$512.74

Current Price

$300.24

$212.50 discount

UndervaluedFair: $512.74Overvalued
UPSTSignificantly Overvalued (-57.2%)

Margin of Safety

-57.2%

Fair Value

$21.06

Current Price

$26.09

$5.03 premium

UndervaluedFair: $21.06Overvalued

Key Strengths & Concerns

Side-by-side fundamental analysis

Key Strengths

AXP3 strengths · Avg: 9.3/10
Market CapQuality
$208.03B10/10

Mega-cap, among the largest globally

Return on EquityProfitability
34.0%10/10

Every $100 of equity generates 34 in profit

Free Cash FlowQuality
$2.35B8/10

Generating 2.3B in free cash flow

UPST1 strengths · Avg: 10.0/10
Revenue GrowthGrowth
34.4%10/10

Revenue surging 34.4% year-over-year

Areas to Watch

AXP3 concerns · Avg: 3.0/10
PEG RatioValuation
1.524/10

Expensive relative to growth rate

Debt/EquityHealth
1.733/10

Elevated debt levels

Altman Z-ScoreHealth
0.132/10

Distress zone — elevated risk

UPST4 concerns · Avg: 3.0/10
EPS GrowthGrowth
2.1%4/10

2.1% earnings growth

Return on EquityProfitability
7.5%3/10

ROE of 7.5% — below average capital efficiency

Profit MarginProfitability
5.0%3/10

5.0% margin — thin

P/E RatioValuation
57.7x2/10

Premium valuation, high expectations priced in

Comparative Analysis Report

WallStSmart Research

Bull Case : AXP

The strongest argument for AXP centers on Market Cap, Return on Equity, Free Cash Flow. Profitability is solid with margins at 16.2% and operating margin at 17.5%. Revenue growth of 10.6% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bull Case : UPST

The strongest argument for UPST centers on Revenue Growth. Revenue growth of 34.4% demonstrates continued momentum.

Bear Case : AXP

The primary concerns for AXP are PEG Ratio, Debt/Equity, Altman Z-Score. Debt-to-equity of 1.73 is elevated, increasing financial risk.

Bear Case : UPST

The primary concerns for UPST are EPS Growth, Return on Equity, Profit Margin. A P/E of 57.7x leaves little room for execution misses. Thin 5.0% margins leave little buffer for downturns.

Key Dynamics to Monitor

AXP profiles as a mature stock while UPST is a hypergrowth play — different risk/reward profiles.

UPST carries more volatility with a beta of 2.19 — expect wider price swings.

UPST is growing revenue faster at 34.4% — sustainability is the question.

AXP generates stronger free cash flow (2.3B), providing more financial flexibility.

Bottom Line

AXP scores higher overall (66/100 vs 51/100), backed by strong 16.2% margins and 10.6% revenue growth. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.

This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.

American Express Company

FINANCIAL SERVICES · CREDIT SERVICES · USA

The American Express Company is a multinational financial services corporation headquartered at 200 Vesey Street in the Battery Park City neighborhood of Lower Manhattan in New York City.

Visit Website →

Upstart Holdings Inc

FINANCIAL SERVICES · CREDIT SERVICES · USA

Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform. The company is headquartered in San Mateo, California.

Want to dig deeper into these stocks?