American Express Company (AXP)vsUpstart Holdings Inc (UPST)
AXP
American Express Company
$300.24
-0.58%
FINANCIAL SERVICES · Cap: $208.03B
UPST
Upstart Holdings Inc
$26.09
-1.92%
FINANCIAL SERVICES · Cap: $2.55B
Smart Verdict
WallStSmart Research — data-driven comparison
American Express Company generates 6127% more annual revenue ($66.97B vs $1.08B). AXP leads profitability with a 16.2% profit margin vs 5.0%. AXP trades at a lower P/E of 19.6x. AXP earns a higher WallStSmart Score of 66/100 (B-).
AXP
Strong Buy66
out of 100
Grade: B-
UPST
Buy51
out of 100
Grade: C-
Intrinsic Value Comparison
Multi-model valuation · Graham Formula
Margin of Safety
+41.4%
Fair Value
$512.74
Current Price
$300.24
$212.50 discount
Margin of Safety
-57.2%
Fair Value
$21.06
Current Price
$26.09
$5.03 premium
Key Strengths & Concerns
Side-by-side fundamental analysis
Key Strengths
Mega-cap, among the largest globally
Every $100 of equity generates 34 in profit
Generating 2.3B in free cash flow
Revenue surging 34.4% year-over-year
Areas to Watch
Expensive relative to growth rate
Elevated debt levels
Distress zone — elevated risk
2.1% earnings growth
ROE of 7.5% — below average capital efficiency
5.0% margin — thin
Premium valuation, high expectations priced in
Comparative Analysis Report
WallStSmart ResearchBull Case : AXP
The strongest argument for AXP centers on Market Cap, Return on Equity, Free Cash Flow. Profitability is solid with margins at 16.2% and operating margin at 17.5%. Revenue growth of 10.6% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bull Case : UPST
The strongest argument for UPST centers on Revenue Growth. Revenue growth of 34.4% demonstrates continued momentum.
Bear Case : AXP
The primary concerns for AXP are PEG Ratio, Debt/Equity, Altman Z-Score. Debt-to-equity of 1.73 is elevated, increasing financial risk.
Bear Case : UPST
The primary concerns for UPST are EPS Growth, Return on Equity, Profit Margin. A P/E of 57.7x leaves little room for execution misses. Thin 5.0% margins leave little buffer for downturns.
Key Dynamics to Monitor
AXP profiles as a mature stock while UPST is a hypergrowth play — different risk/reward profiles.
UPST carries more volatility with a beta of 2.19 — expect wider price swings.
UPST is growing revenue faster at 34.4% — sustainability is the question.
AXP generates stronger free cash flow (2.3B), providing more financial flexibility.
Bottom Line
AXP scores higher overall (66/100 vs 51/100), backed by strong 16.2% margins and 10.6% revenue growth. Both earn "Strong Buy" and "Buy" ratings respectively — the choice depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance.
This analysis is generated from publicly available financial data. Not financial advice.
American Express Company
FINANCIAL SERVICES · CREDIT SERVICES · USA
The American Express Company is a multinational financial services corporation headquartered at 200 Vesey Street in the Battery Park City neighborhood of Lower Manhattan in New York City.
Visit Website →Upstart Holdings Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES · CREDIT SERVICES · USA
Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates a cloud-based artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform. The company is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
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