YOU
Clear Secure Inc
NYSE: YOU · TECHNOLOGY · SOFTWARE - APPLICATION
$56.89
+0.07% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$6.72B
P/E ratio
40.20
P/S ratio
7.13x
EPS (TTM)
$1.25
Dividend yield
1.03%
52W range
$24 – $63
Volume
1.6M
Clear Secure Inc (YOU) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed YOU price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$56.89
Today
Analyst consensus
$62.00
+8.98% · 12M
2030 Base
$94.09
+65.39% future
NPV today
$59.63
@ 10% WACC
9 analysts:
5 Buy2 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Clear Secure raised FY2026 Free Cash Flow guidance to at least $465M (from $440M) in May 2026 earnings call, reflecting strong cash generation. Management has not provided explicit revenue targets through 2030, but Q1 2026 results showed 19.7% YoY revenue growth to $253M quarterly run-rate (~$1.01B annualized), with CEO commentary emphasizing expansion into healthcare, federal identity (CLEAR1 FedRAMP certification), and international markets as primary growth vectors. No specific 2027-2030 revenue guidance issued.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
YOU · Clear Secure Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$68.80
NPV today: $43.60
Base case (2030)
$94.09
NPV today: $59.63
Bull case (2030)
$169.97
NPV today: $107.72
WallStSmart.com
YOU financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.9B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.6B |
| Revenue growth | 16.9% | 28.3% | 26.0% | 24.2% | 20.6% | 15.3% |
| Net margin | — | 16.3% | 17.8% | 19.1% | 19.6% | 20.0% |
| EPS | $1.38 | $1.95 | $2.66 | $3.52 | $4.33 | $5.06 |
| Diluted shares | — | 101M | 102M | 103M | 104M | 104M |
| Net debt | — | $-240.45M | $-543.50M | $-920.08M | $-1.37B | $-1.90B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $38.16 | $50.07 | $64.16 | $79.46 | $94.09 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.6B | $2.6B | $2.6B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 6.0x |
| Diluted shares | 104M | 104M | 104M |
| Net debt | $-1.90B | $-1.90B | $-1.90B |
| Implied P/E † | 14x | 19x | 34x |
| 2030 Price | $68.80 | $94.09 | $169.97 |
| NPV @ 10% | $43.60 | $59.63 | $107.72 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because YOU is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $94.09 base case
YOU catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ CLEAR1 federal digital identity platform expansion across U.S. federal health and civilian agencies (GDIT partnership announced May 2026)
+ Healthcare vertical scaling (Mount Sinai, Ochsner Health partnerships; TAM opportunity ~$50B+ in healthcare identity verification)
+ International airport expansion (61 airports now served; long-tail airport penetration in North America + Europe entry)
+ Consumer membership growth acceleration (8.2M Active CLEAR+ Members as of May 2026; TSA wait time tailwinds continuing)
+ Enterprise/B2B identity verification expansion (Snappt property management partnership; adjacent market TAM ~$30B+)
Key risks
- Valuation risk: P/E of 45.5x and P/S of 8.8x leave limited margin for error; multiple compression likely if growth decelerates below 20%
- TSA wait time normalization: recent surge in downloads/memberships directly tied to March 2026 airport congestion; normalization could slow growth to 12-15%
- Competitive pressure: facial recognition and biometric technology becoming commoditized; new entrants (tech giants) could disrupt airport/identity vertical
- Regulatory headwinds: privacy regulation (GDPR expansion, biometric data restrictions) could limit federal/healthcare expansion or require costly compliance
- Insider selling: CFO, President, and CSO have divested $4.58M+ in recent months; signals potential overvaluation concerns at management level
- CLEAR1 monetization uncertainty: federal platform success depends on government adoption timelines and budgets; revenue realization may lag 2-3 years
Methodology · Clear Secure Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Clear Secure Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 9 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (4% cumulative for YOU by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.90B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.067) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 6.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
YOU price target FAQ
What is the YOU price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Clear Secure Inc 2030 base case is $94.09 per share, with a bull case of $169.97 and bear case of $68.80. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $59.63.
How is the Clear Secure Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The YOU 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the YOU price target account for dilution?
Clear Secure Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 101M to 104M by 2030 (a 4% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 4%.
What is the analyst consensus on YOU stock?
9 analysts cover YOU with an average 12-month price target of $62.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.