XPO Logistics Inc
NYSE: XPO · INDUSTRIALS · TRUCKING
Updated 2026-06-05
XPO Logistics Inc (XPO) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for XPO.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
XPO historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in XPO's own 5Y range.
XPO intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
XPO valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 78.73x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 3.23x
Is XPO overvalued in 2026?
XPO Logistics Inc (XPO) currently trades at $201.60 per share with a market capitalization of $26,808,222,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 53/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 78.7x, above its 5-year median of 49.3x. The PEG ratio of 2.53 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.
Looking at its own history, XPO is currently trading more expensive than 76% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 76th percentile of its historical range, a zone where forward returns have typically been muted.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates XPO's intrinsic value at $163.60 per share, against the current market price of $201.60. This implies a premium to fair value of -23.37%. The current price sits well above what projected cash flows justify, implying investors are paying for growth that has not yet materialized.
The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: XPO trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 53/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is XPO overvalued?
XPO scores 53/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade C), a mixed overall profile. On valuation specifically, the DCF puts intrinsic value below the current price, so the stock is expensive on cash flow today. The score reflects growth and quality carrying it, not a cheap entry point.
What is XPO's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates XPO's intrinsic value at $163.60 per share, versus the current price of $201.60, a margin of safety of -23.37%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price above it means the market is paying up for growth the model does not yet assume.
What P/E ratio does XPO trade at?
XPO trades at a P/E of 78.7x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 49.3x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting above its own median means the stock is pricier than usual relative to its earnings.
Is XPO a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for XPO is Hold, from a Smart Value Score of 53/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile is balanced and best suited to investors who already have a thesis. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does XPO's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, XPO sits in the 76th percentile of its own 5Y range, historically expensive relative to where it has traded. A high percentile means today's multiple is near the top of its historical band.
What is XPO's Smart Value Score?
XPO's Smart Value Score is 53/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.