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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

NYSE: TSM · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS

$396.06
+0.57% today

Updated 2026-04-30

Market cap
$2.04T
P/E ratio
33.66
P/S ratio
0.50x
EPS (TTM)
$11.70
Dividend yield
0.89%
52W range
$169 – $415
Volume
13.5M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$396.06
Consensus
$387.14
-2.25%
2030 Target
$16,556.31
+4080.25%
DCF
$1,399.41
+72.43% MoS
41 analysts:
3 Buy1 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

TSMC management has provided explicit guidance of >30% revenue growth for 2026, with CEO and executives emphasizing sustained AI demand will drive continued expansion. The company increased capex to $56B to expand 3nm and advanced capacity, signaling confidence in multi-year growth trajectory. Management projects revenue this quarter (Q2 2026) to reach $39-40.2B (10% sequential, 30% annual growth), demonstrating confidence in sustained momentum through 2026-2027.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$26,482.77
$10850.0B Rev × 12.8x P/S
Base case (2030)
$16,556.31
$10850.0B Rev × 8x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$9,926.46
$10850.0B Rev × 4.8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$2161.7B$2894.3B$3848.5B$5120.0B$6410.0B$8167.0B$10416.0B$10850.0B
Revenue growth—33.9%33.0%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%15.7%
EPS$5.19$7.04$10.65$92.16$115.21$149.82$195.76$192.78
P/S ratio———8.0x8.0x8.0x8.0x8.0x
Implied price———$7,719.07$9,688.22$12,326.88$15,713.82$16,556.31

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ AI chip demand acceleration from hyperscalers (Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon)
+ A13 process technology ramping to volume production in 2029 with 6% area savings and power efficiency gains
+ Arizona chip packaging plant operational by 2029, reducing geographic concentration risk
+ 3nm capacity expansion with new production lines coming online through 2026-2028
+ CoWoS technology expansion and 3D chip stacking with system-on-integrated-chip by 2029
+ Taiwan regulatory change allowing 25% single-stock allocation (up from 10%), attracting domestic capital inflows
+ 72.3% foundry market share with minimal competitive threat from Intel or GlobalFoundries in next 3 years
Key risks
- Iran war disruptions to chipmaking chemicals/gases supply chain
- Delayed adoption of ASML high-NA EUV lithography (TSMC stated current tools too expensive)
- Geopolitical risk: Taiwan strait tensions could disrupt world's most critical chipmaker
- Customer concentration: Heavy reliance on NVIDIA, AMD, and hyperscaler AI chip orders
- Cyclical semiconductor industry downturn if AI capex cycle moderates unexpectedly
- Rising capex burden ($56B in 2026) may pressure margins despite pricing power
- Competition from Samsung and Intel in advanced nodes if they achieve parity in 2027-2028

Methodology

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 41 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 30, 2026.