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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

NYSE: TSM · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS

$423.93
+0.68% today

Updated 2026-06-12

Market cap
$2.18T
P/E ratio
36.24
P/S ratio
0.53x
EPS (TTM)
$11.62
Dividend yield
0.90%
52W range
$204 – $449
Volume
13.5M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

TSM · Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing · Price target summary

Current
$423.93
Consensus
$416.67
-1.71%
2030 Target
$687.40
+62.15%
DCF
$839.44
+49.50% MoS
41 analysts:
13 Buy2 Hold0 Sell

Management guidance

TSMC management has raised FY2026 revenue guidance to TWD 5.26T (approximately $179B USD equivalent), representing 37.99% growth from FY2025's TWD 3.81T. CEO C.C. Wei stated the company expects strong AI-driven demand to continue through 2028, with advanced technology nodes (N3, N2) driving 74% of wafer revenue. TSMC projects the global semiconductor market will reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, with TSMC capturing disproportionate share growth from AI infrastructure buildout.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

TSM · Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$404.35
$451.2B Rev × 4.8x P/S
Base case (2030)
$687.40
$451.2B Rev × 8x P/S
Bull case (2030)
$1,091.75
$451.2B Rev × 12.8x P/S
WallStSmart.com

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric20252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$3848.5B$179.4B$228.2B$293.8B$370.5B$451.2B
Revenue growth33.0%37.9%27.2%28.7%26.1%21.7%
EPS$10.65$98.52$125.67$162.45$201.38$243.65
P/S ratio—8.0x8.0x8.0x8.0x8.0x
Implied price—$283.05$363.92$444.79$566.09$687.40

TSM · Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing · Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ AI chip demand acceleration driven by data center capex ($1.2T+ committed through 2028 from NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, Meta)
+ Advanced node ramp (N2, N1.4 production scaling in 2026-2027) with premium pricing power
+ Geographic expansion: Arizona Fab completion (2024-2026), Japan JASM expansion, Germany fab operational by 2027
+ Sony joint venture for image sensors expanding TAM into automotive AI and robotics
+ Contracted backlog visibility: 72.3% foundry market share with long-term customer agreements securing capacity
+ Potential geopolitical tailwinds: U.S. CHIPS Act subsidies accelerating domestic capacity demand
Key risks
- Geopolitical tensions (U.S.-China trade restrictions) could limit China customer revenue growth; Huawei ban continuation
- AI capex normalization risk: If hyperscaler spending moderates post-2026, demand growth could decelerate to 20-25% range
- Valuation risk: Stock trading at 35.2x P/E (elevated) with 46.5% margins; margin compression risk if foundry pricing normalizes
- Concentration risk: HPC/AI now represents majority of revenue; downturn in that segment could compress overall growth
- Execution risk on capex: $20B+ annual capex required to support growth; any execution delays could constrain supply

Methodology

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 41 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 16, 2026.