TKO
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
NYSE: TKO · COMMUNICATION SERVICES · ENTERTAINMENT
$187.51
+0.49% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$39.07B
P/E ratio
75.72
P/S ratio
7.72x
EPS (TTM)
$2.70
Dividend yield
1.33%
52W range
$151 – $226
Volume
1.4M
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed TKO price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$187.51
Today
Analyst consensus
$234.39
+25.00% · 12M
2030 Base
$477.43
+154.62% future
NPV today
$379.60
@ 5% WACC
20 analysts:
11 Buy7 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
TKO affirmed FY2026 revenue guidance of $5.675B-$5.775B (midpoint $5.725B), representing 20.8% growth from FY2025 ($4.74B). Management has not provided specific multi-year CAGR targets or 2030 revenue guidance. Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.597B (+26% YoY), tracking toward upper end of FY2026 guidance. Strategic M&A integration (UFC/WWE/PBR consolidation under TKO in 2024) and expansion into global markets and digital content are primary growth drivers.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
TKO · TKO Group Holdings, Inc. · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$243.06
NPV today: $193.25
Base case (2030)
$477.43
NPV today: $379.60
Bull case (2030)
$828.98
NPV today: $659.11
WallStSmart.com
TKO financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.7B | $5.7B | $6.7B | $7.6B | $8.3B | $9.0B |
| Revenue growth | 68.9% | 20.8% | 17.8% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 7.9% |
| Net margin | — | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| EPS | $2.30 | $4.85 | $6.10 | $6.95 | $7.50 | $8.05 |
| Diluted shares | — | 75M | 76M | 76M | 76M | 77M |
| Net debt | — | $3.10B | $2.29B | $1.39B | $401.12M | $-666.05M |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $262.85 | $326.02 | $382.13 | $430.77 | $477.43 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.0B | $9.0B | $9.0B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 77M | 77M | 77M |
| Net debt | $-666.05M | $-666.05M | $-666.05M |
| Implied P/E † | 30x | 59x | 103x |
| 2030 Price | $243.06 | $477.43 | $828.98 |
| NPV @ 5% | $193.25 | $379.60 | $659.11 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because TKO is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $477.43 base case
TKO catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Strategic international expansion (Abu Dhabi UFC Fight Night July 2026, Azerbaijan multi-year partnership, Arizona sports events agreement) driving premium gate/ticketing revenue
+ Digital and gaming monetization acceleration (EA Sports UFC 6 June 2026 launch, Roblox partnership expansion, merchandise licensing growth)
+ Live event volume and pricing power maintenance (WWE WrestleMania 42, UFC Fight Night expansion, PBR global tour growth) supporting pricing-driven EBITDA margins
+ $3B total share buyback authorization ($800M ASR + $1B Rule 10b5-1 + $1.2B announced) supporting EPS accretion through 2028-2029
+ Content licensing expansion and media rights renewals at premium valuations given consolidated market leadership in combat sports and professional wrestling
Key risks
- Live event cyclicality and PPV subscriber saturation in mature markets (North America) limiting growth above 20% CAGR in outer years
- High leverage (Debt/Eq 1.47x, EV $45.5B on $5.06B LTM revenue) constrains flexibility; debt servicing may pressure margin expansion if interest rates remain elevated
- Consumer discretionary exposure during potential economic slowdown; premium live entertainment ticket sales and PPV buys are first-to-cut discretionary spend
- Regulatory/antitrust scrutiny on consolidated combat sports + wrestling monopoly; athlete unionization pressure on cost structure
- Key person risk (CEO Ariel Emanuel, President Mark Shapiro) — founder-dependent business model; recent insider buying may signal near-term confidence but not institutional depth
- International expansion execution risk; Abu Dhabi, Azerbaijan, and Arizona deals require sustained event quality and local demand maturation
Methodology · TKO Group Holdings, Inc. 2030 stock forecast model
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 20 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for TKO by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-666.05M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 5% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.105) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
TKO price target FAQ
What is the TKO price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's TKO Group Holdings, Inc. 2030 base case is $477.43 per share, with a bull case of $828.98 and bear case of $243.06. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 5% WACC is $379.60.
How is the TKO Group Holdings, Inc. 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The TKO 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the TKO price target account for dilution?
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is projected to grow diluted share count from 75M to 77M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on TKO stock?
20 analysts cover TKO with an average 12-month price target of $234.39. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.