SCI
Service Corporation International
NYSE: SCI · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · PERSONAL SERVICES
$77.38
-0.19% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$10.61B
P/E ratio
20.30
P/S ratio
2.45x
EPS (TTM)
$3.79
Dividend yield
1.79%
52W range
$68 – $89
Volume
1.4M
Service Corporation International (SCI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed SCI price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$77.38
Today
Analyst consensus
$95.00
+22.77% · 12M
2030 Base
$16.08
-79.22% future
NPV today
$10.63
@ 9% WACC
8 analysts:
5 Buy0 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.05-$4.35 (midpoint $4.20), implying ~3-4% earnings growth. Company did not provide explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030, but emphasized stable organic growth driven by aging demographics (North American population 65+ growing ~2-3% annually) and preneed backlog strength. Capital allocation prioritizes acquisitions, dividends (6% increase to $0.36/share), and share buybacks (~$102M in 6 months ending Feb 2026).
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
SCI · Service Corporation International · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$16.08
NPV today: $10.63
Base case (2030)
$16.08
NPV today: $10.63
Bull case (2030)
$89.78
NPV today: $59.33
WallStSmart.com
SCI financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.3B | $4.6B | $4.7B | $4.8B | $5.0B | $5.1B |
| Revenue growth | 2.9% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Net margin | — | 12.7% | 13.5% | 14.2% | 14.8% | 15.4% |
| EPS | $3.87 | $4.20 | $4.60 | $4.95 | $5.30 | $5.68 |
| Diluted shares | — | 138M | 138M | 139M | 139M | 139M |
| Net debt | — | $4.62B | $4.21B | $3.78B | $3.34B | $2.88B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $-0.32 | $3.64 | $7.67 | $11.82 | $16.08 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.1B | $5.1B | $5.1B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 3.0x |
| Diluted shares | 139M | 139M | 139M |
| Net debt | $2.88B | $2.88B | $2.88B |
| Implied P/E † | 3x | 3x | 16x |
| 2030 Price | $16.08 | $16.08 | $89.78 |
| NPV @ 9% | $10.63 | $10.63 | $59.33 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because SCI is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $16.08 base case
SCI catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Aging North American population (65+ demographic growing 2-3% annually) driving stable death volume and preneed revenue
+ Large preneed backlog ($4.5B+ in future revenue from cemetery preneed sales) converting to cash over time
+ Strategic M&A expansion (acquisitions of funeral homes and cemeteries in growth markets)
+ 6% dividend increase and $2B+ annual share buyback program supporting per-share EPS growth
+ Digital transformation and cremation service expansion improving margins
Key risks
- Funeral volumes declined 6% in Q1 2026, suggesting accelerating cremation adoption and reduced service frequency
- Debt-to-equity of 3.26x and operating cash flow coverage concerns if volumes deteriorate further
- Mature market saturation limiting organic growth to 2-3% without acquisitions
- Q1 2026 EPS missed estimates ($0.97 vs. $1.00 expected) despite revenue beat, indicating margin pressure
- Insider selling activity (Handelsbanken reduced stake 17.8%) signals potential valuation ceiling
Methodology · Service Corporation International 2030 stock forecast model
Service Corporation International 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 8 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for SCI by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($2.88B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.888) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 3.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
SCI price target FAQ
What is the SCI price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Service Corporation International 2030 base case is $16.08 per share, with a bull case of $89.78 and bear case of $16.08. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $10.63.
How is the Service Corporation International 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The SCI 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the SCI price target account for dilution?
Service Corporation International is projected to grow diluted share count from 138M to 139M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on SCI stock?
8 analysts cover SCI with an average 12-month price target of $95.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.