SCCO
Southern Copper Corporation
NYSE: SCCO · BASIC MATERIALS · COPPER
$185.23
-1.27% today
Updated 2026-06-04
Market cap
$168.01B
P/E ratio
34.13
P/S ratio
11.55x
EPS (TTM)
$5.90
Dividend yield
1.69%
52W range
$84 – $221
Volume
1.4M
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed SCCO price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$185.23
Today
Analyst consensus
$158.16
-14.61% · 12M
2030 Base
$153.16
-17.31% future
NPV today
$97.06
@ 10% WACC
16 analysts:
2 Buy5 Hold14 Sell
Management guidance
Southern Copper management has guided for a 68% production increase by 2035 through a $1.9 billion annual capital expenditure plan, driven by major projects in Peru and Mexico. This represents a structural growth trajectory targeting approximately 1.8–2.0M tonnes of copper annual production by 2035 (vs. current ~1.1M tonnes). CEO Leonardo Contreras Lerdo de Tejada (newly appointed May 2026) has reiterated full-year 2026 production guidance, expecting to meet or exceed targets despite operational headwinds.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
SCCO · Southern Copper Corporation · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$63.63
NPV today: $40.33
Base case (2030)
$153.16
NPV today: $97.06
Bull case (2030)
$302.39
NPV today: $191.64
WallStSmart.com
SCCO financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.4B | $16.2B | $18.1B | $20.5B | $22.8B | $24.9B |
| Revenue growth | 17.4% | 20.7% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 9.2% |
| Net margin | — | 36.8% | 36.2% | 36.4% | 35.7% | 34.7% |
| EPS | $5.26 | $7.15 | $7.85 | $8.95 | $9.75 | $10.35 |
| Diluted shares | — | 834M | 834M | 834M | 834M | 834M |
| Net debt | — | $1.52B | $508.39M | $-632.80M | $-1.90B | $-3.29B |
| P/S multiple | — | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x | 5.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $95.27 | $107.86 | $123.61 | $138.92 | $153.16 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.9B | $24.9B | $24.9B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 5.0x | 10.0x |
| Diluted shares | 834M | 834M | 834M |
| Net debt | $-3.29B | $-3.29B | $-3.29B |
| Implied P/E † | 6x | 15x | 29x |
| 2030 Price | $63.63 | $153.16 | $302.39 |
| NPV @ 10% | $40.33 | $97.06 | $191.64 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because SCCO is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $153.16 base case
SCCO catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ 68% copper production increase by 2035 via $1.9B annual capex; projects in Peru and Mexico expected to ramp in 2027–2029
+ Global copper supply deficit driven by AI/data center electrification, EV adoption, and grid infrastructure spending; copper prices near record highs
+ Dividend growth authorization and strong FCF generation (profit margin 34.1%, ROE 46.5%) supporting investor returns
+ Tía María project regulatory status and timeline clarity; potential permitting resolution could unlock major Peru production
+ Leadership transition to new CEO; organizational efficiency improvements and capital discipline
Key risks
- Peru regulatory and permitting risk (Tía María construction permit revocation in May 2026; community opposition and political instability)
- Copper price volatility and macro slowdown risk (Q1 2026 copper prices retreated from record highs; China economic weakness, strong USD headwinds)
- High valuation (P/E 32.5x, P/S 9.99x) leaves limited margin of safety; analyst consensus is 'Sell' with 9.15% downside to $158.16 target
- Operating cost inflation and capital cost escalation; execution risk on $15B+ capex program through 2035
- Concentration risk: 90.5% insider ownership (Grupo México); limited public float (79.2M shares) may constrain liquidity and increase volatility
Methodology · Southern Copper Corporation 2030 stock forecast model
Southern Copper Corporation 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 16 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for SCCO by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-3.29B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.079) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 5.0x / bull 10.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
SCCO price target FAQ
What is the SCCO price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Southern Copper Corporation 2030 base case is $153.16 per share, with a bull case of $302.39 and bear case of $63.63. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $97.06.
How is the Southern Copper Corporation 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The SCCO 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the SCCO price target account for dilution?
Southern Copper Corporation is projected to grow diluted share count from 834M to 834M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on SCCO stock?
16 analysts cover SCCO with an average 12-month price target of $158.16. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.