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RIVN

Rivian Automotive Inc

NASDAQ: RIVN · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · AUTO MANUFACTURERS

$16.06
-0.50% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$20.34B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
3.78x
EPS (TTM)
$-3.07
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$12 – $23
Volume
26.1M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$16.06
Consensus
$17.74
+10.46%
2030 Target
—
—
DCF
$76.88
+80.80% MoS
21 analysts:
8 Buy9 Hold7 Sell

Management guidance

Rivian management reaffirmed over 50% annual deliveries growth for 2026 in Q1 2026 earnings. CEO guidance has shifted away from 2027 profitability target, redirecting focus to autonomy development and R2 ramp. Specific revenue targets for 2026-2030 period not explicitly stated; company prioritizing unit growth and margin expansion trajectory.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$438.82
—
Base case (2030)
$262.99
—
Bear case (2030)
$175.83
—

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)
Revenue$4.4B$5.0B$5.4B$7.2B$18.2B$27.4B
Revenue growth—12.1%8.4%32.8%54.6%50.5%
EPS$-4.88$-4.05$-2.63$-2.56$-1.15$-0.25
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$68.80$174.31$262.99

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ R2 mid-size SUV production ramp starting spring 2026 targeting mass-market segment
+ Uber partnership: 50,000 R2 robotaxis by 2031 with up to $1.25B in staged payments tied to autonomous milestones
+ Volkswagen joint venture RV Tech: $2B total investment ($1B triggered by winter testing success) for software-defined vehicles
+ R2 Robotaxi autonomous capability development and commercial deployment
+ Gross margin expansion as R2 production scales (higher volume, lower ASP but better unit economics)
+ Universal Hands Free assisted driving system competitive positioning
Key risks
- Fourth consecutive month of U.S. sales decline (26.5% YoY drop in Q1 2026) preceding R2 launch creates execution risk
- Massive negative cash burn: Q4 2025 FCF declined 233.6% YoY despite positive operating cash flow
- Profitability timeline pushed beyond 2027; company still burning $3.65B annually; -67.7% profit margin
- Competition intensifying: Tesla Model 3/Y pricing pressure, traditional automakers scaling EVs, NIO/XPeng/Li Auto in China
- Robotaxi revenue contingent on Rivian meeting unproven autonomous driving milestones; customer concentration risk with Uber
- R2 pricing ($35-50K target) requires scale to achieve positive unit economics given current cost structure
- Supply chain and manufacturing execution risk: 15,232 employees, capital-intensive production ramp
- Equity dilution risk: Multiple capital raises (SMB $300M, VW $2B) to fund growth and losses

Methodology

Rivian Automotive Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 21 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.