PKG
Packaging Corp of America
NYSE: PKG · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · PACKAGING & CONTAINERS
$221.52
-0.83% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$20.33B
P/E ratio
27.70
P/S ratio
2.21x
EPS (TTM)
$8.24
Dividend yield
2.23%
52W range
$182 – $248
Volume
0.8M
Packaging Corp of America (PKG) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed PKG price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$221.52
Today
Analyst consensus
$238.25
+7.55% · 12M
2030 Base
$162.73
-26.54% future
NPV today
$108.92
@ 9% WACC
14 analysts:
7 Buy3 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
PKG management guided to $5.2B in strategic investments expected to deliver returns in 2026. CEO emphasized strong Q1 2026 demand for containerboard and corrugated packaging in US markets, with pricing discipline and operational optimization driving margin expansion. Company announced 20% dividend increase in May 2026, signaling confidence in cash generation and pricing power sustainability.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
PKG · Packaging Corp of America · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$162.73
NPV today: $108.92
Base case (2030)
$162.73
NPV today: $108.92
Bull case (2030)
$308.97
NPV today: $206.80
WallStSmart.com
PKG financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.0B | $10.5B | $11.2B | $11.9B | $12.5B | $13.2B |
| Revenue growth | 7.2% | 16.8% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% |
| Net margin | — | 10.1% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 11.0% |
| EPS | $9.84 | $11.85 | $13.20 | $14.35 | $15.25 | $16.05 |
| Diluted shares | — | 89M | 89M | 90M | 90M | 90M |
| Net debt | — | $-263.04M | $-543.60M | $-840.93M | $-1.15B | $-1.48B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $120.77 | $131.49 | $142.03 | $152.37 | $162.73 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.2B | $13.2B | $13.2B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 90M | 90M | 90M |
| Net debt | $-1.48B | $-1.48B | $-1.48B |
| Implied P/E † | 10x | 10x | 19x |
| 2030 Price | $162.73 | $162.73 | $308.97 |
| NPV @ 9% | $108.92 | $108.92 | $206.80 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because PKG is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $162.73 base case
PKG catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ $50/ton containerboard price increase in June 2026 expected to add ~$290M annualized EBITDA if pricing holds
+ Strategic $5.2B capex investments in mill modernization and efficiency gains driving margin expansion through 2026-2027
+ Strong US industrial and consumer demand recovery supporting corrugated packaging volume growth and pricing power
+ Vertically integrated model enables cost control and improved profitability as input costs stabilize
+ 20% dividend increase signals management confidence in sustainable cash generation and pricing discipline
Key risks
- Recession/demand destruction in US economy would immediately reduce corrugated packaging volume and pricing power
- Containerboard oversupply if competitors add capacity; pricing discipline could break if industry becomes competitive
- Input cost inflation (energy, recovered fiber, chemicals) could compress margins faster than pricing can offset
- Tariff uncertainty on imports affecting customer costs and supply chain decisions
- Customer consolidation or shift to alternative packaging materials could reduce demand for corrugated products
Methodology · Packaging Corp of America 2030 stock forecast model
Packaging Corp of America 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 14 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for PKG by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-1.48B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.83) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
PKG price target FAQ
What is the PKG price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Packaging Corp of America 2030 base case is $162.73 per share, with a bull case of $308.97 and bear case of $162.73. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $108.92.
How is the Packaging Corp of America 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The PKG 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the PKG price target account for dilution?
Packaging Corp of America is projected to grow diluted share count from 89M to 90M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on PKG stock?
14 analysts cover PKG with an average 12-month price target of $238.25. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.