PBA
Pembina Pipeline Corp
NYSE: PBA · ENERGY · OIL & GAS MIDSTREAM
$44.96
-0.87% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$27.97B
P/E ratio
25.19
P/S ratio
3.68x
EPS (TTM)
$1.91
Dividend yield
5.91%
52W range
$34 – $50
Volume
1.2M
Pembina Pipeline Corp (PBA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed PBA price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$44.96
Today
Analyst consensus
$62.67
+39.39% · 12M
2030 Base
$36.74
-18.28% future
NPV today
$25.33
@ 8% WACC
17 analysts:
5 Buy5 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
Pembina Pipeline raised FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance by CAD 175M to CAD 4.35-4.55B range (midpoint CAD 4.45B) following Q1 2026 beat. Management targets 2029 revenue of CAD 9.1B and adjusted EBITDA of CAD 1.9B, implying ~17% CAGR from 2025 baseline of CAD 7.78B. CEO Scott Burrows emphasized growth from LNG, fractionation, power generation projects, and West Coast export facility optimization through 2029-2030.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
PBA · Pembina Pipeline Corp · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$1.69
NPV today: $1.17
Base case (2030)
$36.74
NPV today: $25.33
Bull case (2030)
$71.78
NPV today: $49.49
WallStSmart.com
PBA financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.8B | $8.6B | $9.1B | $9.8B | $9.9B | $10.3B |
| Revenue growth | 5.3% | 9.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 150.0% | 4.5% |
| Net margin | — | 20.8% | 21.1% | 21.2% | 21.5% | 21.7% |
| EPS | $2.67 | $3.05 | $3.28 | $3.52 | $3.62 | $3.80 |
| Diluted shares | — | 584M | 585M | 587M | 589M | 591M |
| Net debt | — | $12.11B | $11.47B | $10.78B | $10.08B | $9.35B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $23.19 | $27.04 | $31.45 | $33.31 | $36.74 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.3B | $10.3B | $10.3B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 591M | 591M | 591M |
| Net debt | $9.35B | $9.35B | $9.35B |
| Implied P/E † | 0x | 10x | 19x |
| 2030 Price | $1.69 | $36.74 | $71.78 |
| NPV @ 8% | $1.17 | $25.33 | $49.49 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because PBA is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $36.74 base case
PBA catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Cedar LNG capacity monetization via PETRONAS long-term agreement (contracted backlog growth)
+ Wapiti Expansion and K3 Cogeneration Facility commissioning (new revenue-generating assets online)
+ Fractionation and propane export upside from elevated Asian commodity prices and Middle East supply constraints
+ Meta data center power offtake agreement (emerging high-margin power/infrastructure revenue stream)
+ Greenlight Electricity Project development and capacity sales (2027-2030 EBITDA lift)
+ Normal course share repurchase program (5% authorization) supporting EPS accretion if stock undervalued
Key risks
- Alliance Pipeline toll changes reducing near-term revenue contribution and fee visibility
- NGL frac spreads compression limiting marketing upside in commodity price downturns
- Regulatory/permitting delays on LNG and power projects (government 'faster permitting' not yet materializing per CEO)
- Debt/equity ratio of 0.82 constrains incremental capex and shareholder returns if project economics weaken
- Citi downgrade to Neutral (May 2026) citing limited upside after fee-based growth run; sentiment volatility risk
Methodology · Pembina Pipeline Corp 2030 stock forecast model
Pembina Pipeline Corp 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 17 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for PBA by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($9.35B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 8% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.704) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
PBA price target FAQ
What is the PBA price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Pembina Pipeline Corp 2030 base case is $36.74 per share, with a bull case of $71.78 and bear case of $1.69. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 8% WACC is $25.33.
How is the Pembina Pipeline Corp 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The PBA 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the PBA price target account for dilution?
Pembina Pipeline Corp is projected to grow diluted share count from 581M to 591M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on PBA stock?
17 analysts cover PBA with an average 12-month price target of $62.67. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.