OXY
Occidental Petroleum Corporation
NYSE: OXY · ENERGY · OIL & GAS E&P
$56.54
+1.93% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$58.77B
P/E ratio
79.85
P/S ratio
2.78x
EPS (TTM)
$0.74
Dividend yield
1.66%
52W range
$39 – $67
Volume
14.1M
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed OXY price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$56.54
Today
Analyst consensus
$62.43
+10.42% · 12M
2030 Base
$35.61
-37.02% future
NPV today
$27.94
@ 5% WACC
26 analysts:
9 Buy15 Hold3 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Richard Jackson (taking over from Vicki Hollub in May 2026) has not yet issued specific multi-year revenue targets. Most recent guidance from Q1 2026 earnings focused on production guidance (600-620 kBoe/d in 2026) and deleveraging to $10B debt target by end of 2027, rather than explicit revenue projections. Management emphasized cost discipline and capital allocation flexibility based on commodity prices.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
OXY · Occidental Petroleum Corporation · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$35.61
NPV today: $27.94
Base case (2030)
$35.61
NPV today: $27.94
Bull case (2030)
$98.73
NPV today: $77.47
WallStSmart.com
OXY financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $21.6B | $25.1B | $26.8B | $28.6B | $30.2B | $31.8B |
| Revenue growth | -20.3% | 16.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% |
| Net margin | — | 17.2% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 13.5% | 13.3% |
| EPS | $2.21 | $4.34 | $3.60 | $3.85 | $4.05 | $4.20 |
| Diluted shares | — | 998M | 1001M | 1004M | 1006M | 1008M |
| Net debt | — | $17.61B | $12.65B | $7.37B | $1.79B | $-4.09B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $7.51 | $14.14 | $21.15 | $28.25 | $35.61 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.8B | $31.8B | $31.8B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 3.0x |
| Diluted shares | 1008M | 1008M | 1008M |
| Net debt | $-4.09B | $-4.09B | $-4.09B |
| Implied P/E † | 9x | 9x | 24x |
| 2030 Price | $35.61 | $35.61 | $98.73 |
| NPV @ 5% | $27.94 | $27.94 | $77.47 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because OXY is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $35.61 base case
OXY catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ CEO transition to Richard Jackson may bring operational focus and potential strategic portfolio optimization
+ Gulf of Mexico Bandit discovery (announced April 2026) adds new production reserves with multi-year development runway
+ Geopolitical tensions in Middle East (Iran-Israel conflict ongoing as of May 2026) supporting elevated oil prices ($85-100/bbl range)
+ Debt reduction target ($10B by end-2027) creates cash flow optionality for shareholder returns and M&A
+ Permian Basin operations and cost structure improvements driving margin expansion
Key risks
- Oil price volatility: 2026 consensus oil price assumptions ($80-90 Brent); significant downside if geopolitical tensions resolve or recession reduces demand
- Capital-intensive E&P model creates ceiling on revenue growth without major M&A or discovery acceleration; organic production growth constrained to 2-4% annually
- Iran war ceasefire risk: recent Iran-US ceasefire talks could trigger rapid oil price collapse (Brent down to $70-75/bbl observed in April 2026 when ceasefire announced)
- Regulatory and energy transition headwinds in US and EU limiting long-cycle project FID approvals
- CEO transition execution risk during commodity cycle inflection; new CEO may deprioritize aggressive growth capex
Methodology · Occidental Petroleum Corporation 2030 stock forecast model
Occidental Petroleum Corporation 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 26 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for OXY by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-4.09B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 5% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.172) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 3.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
OXY price target FAQ
What is the OXY price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Occidental Petroleum Corporation 2030 base case is $35.61 per share, with a bull case of $98.73 and bear case of $35.61. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 5% WACC is $27.94.
How is the Occidental Petroleum Corporation 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The OXY 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the OXY price target account for dilution?
Occidental Petroleum Corporation is projected to grow diluted share count from 995M to 1008M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on OXY stock?
26 analysts cover OXY with an average 12-month price target of $62.43. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.