Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
NASDAQ: ODFL · INDUSTRIALS · TRUCKING
Updated 2026-04-29
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for ODFL.
Current price exceeds what fundamentals support. Risk/reward skewed unfavorably.
ODFL historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in ODFL's own 5Y range.
ODFL intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
ODFL valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 43.34x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 7.94x
Is ODFL overvalued in 2026?
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) currently trades at $209.35 per share with a market capitalization of $43,633,906,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock appears richly valued with a Smart Value Score of 49/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 43.3x, above its 5-year median of 34.6x. The PEG ratio of 3.06 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.
Looking at its own history, ODFL is currently trading more expensive than 88% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 88th percentile of its historical range, a zone where forward returns have typically been muted.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates ODFL's intrinsic value at $147.56 per share, against the current market price of $209.35. This implies a premium to fair value of -31.78%. The current price sits well above what projected cash flows justify, implying investors are paying for growth that has not yet materialized.
Financial quality is a concern. The Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 flags weakening fundamentals that deserve closer scrutiny before the valuation case can be fully trusted.
Bottom line: ODFL appears richly valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 49/100. At current levels the risk/reward is skewed against the buyer. A materially lower price or significant operational improvement would be needed to change the picture.
Frequently asked questions
Is ODFL overvalued in 2026?
Based on a Smart Value Score of 49/100, ODFL appears overvalued. Current price exceeds what fundamentals currently justify.
What is ODFL's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates ODFL's intrinsic value at $147.56 per share, versus the current price of $209.35. This produces a margin of safety of -31.78%.
What P/E ratio does ODFL trade at?
ODFL trades at a P/E of 43.3x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 34.6x.
Is ODFL a buy based on valuation?
WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 49/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile skews cautious. Consider waiting for a better price or clearer operational improvement.
How does ODFL's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, ODFL currently sits in the 88th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is historically expensive relative to where it has traded over the period.
What is ODFL's Smart Value Score?
ODFL's Smart Value Score is 49/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.