ODFL
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc
NASDAQ: ODFL · INDUSTRIALS · TRUCKING
$245.75
-0.81% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$51.11B
P/E ratio
51.30
P/S ratio
9.37x
EPS (TTM)
$4.79
Dividend yield
0.46%
52W range
$125 – $252
Volume
2.0M
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (ODFL) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed ODFL price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$245.75
Today
Analyst consensus
$206.29
-16.06% · 12M
2030 Base
$180.98
-26.36% future
NPV today
$112.33
@ 11% WACC
26 analysts:
8 Buy16 Hold2 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030. Q1 2026 earnings call indicated management is 'encouraged as declines moderate' and eyeing 'y/y margin improvement in Q2,' suggesting stabilization after 2025's -5.48% revenue decline. No specific revenue CAGR or dollar targets disclosed for 2026-2030 period.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
ODFL · Old Dominion Freight Line Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$101.25
NPV today: $62.84
Base case (2030)
$180.98
NPV today: $112.33
Bull case (2030)
$340.42
NPV today: $211.29
WallStSmart.com
ODFL financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.5B | $5.9B | $6.5B | $7.2B | $7.8B | $8.3B |
| Revenue growth | -5.5% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% |
| Net margin | — | 19.3% | 21.7% | 22.8% | 23.2% | 23.3% |
| EPS | $4.83 | $5.48 | $6.82 | $7.88 | $8.65 | $9.28 |
| Diluted shares | — | 208M | 208M | 208M | 208M | 208M |
| Net debt | — | $-742.69M | $-1.56B | $-2.46B | $-3.44B | $-4.48B |
| P/S multiple | — | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x | 4.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $117.43 | $133.30 | $150.05 | $165.69 | $180.98 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.3B | $8.3B | $8.3B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 4.0x | 8.0x |
| Diluted shares | 208M | 208M | 208M |
| Net debt | $-4.48B | $-4.48B | $-4.48B |
| Implied P/E † | 11x | 20x | 37x |
| 2030 Price | $101.25 | $180.98 | $340.42 |
| NPV @ 11% | $62.84 | $112.33 | $211.29 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because ODFL is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $180.98 base case
ODFL catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ LTL freight market recovery: Q1 2026 shows improving volume trends and better-than-expected revenue despite macro headwinds; continued stabilization could accelerate growth into 2027-2028
+ FedEx Freight spinoff (June 1, 2026): Creates new $8.7B LTL competitor with aggressive 12% margin target; competitive pressure may force ODFL to prove pricing power and market share defense, driving operational improvements
+ Terminal expansion and network optimization: $10.5M Tri-Cities hub opened May 2026; continued capex deployment (415M in 2025, strong FCF generation) supports market share gains as capacity constraints ease
+ Margin expansion from operating leverage: 25.1% operating margin (Q1 2026) is depressed vs. historical 26-28%; recovery toward pre-2023 levels would add $100M+ annual EBIT and support EPS growth independent of volume
Key risks
- Macro recession/freight demand cliff: LTL tonnage remains soft despite stabilization signals; sustained economic weakness could reignite 2023-2025 revenue decline trajectory
- FedEx Freight competitive intensity: New 12%-margin target LTL competitor could compress ODFL pricing/market share; historical ODFL advantage (best-in-class service, 26%+ margins) is not impervious to sustained price warfare
- Regulatory/labor cost inflation: Driver shortage normalization could spike wages; DOT/labor regulation could increase operating costs, compressing margins despite revenue growth
- Valuation vulnerability: 40.6x P/E (41.7x forward per Finviz) leaves minimal room for guidance misses; any 2026-2027 disappointment could trigger 15-25% drawdown
Methodology · Old Dominion Freight Line Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 26 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (0% cumulative for ODFL by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-4.48B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 11% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.172) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 4.0x / bull 8.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
ODFL price target FAQ
What is the ODFL price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Old Dominion Freight Line Inc 2030 base case is $180.98 per share, with a bull case of $340.42 and bear case of $101.25. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 11% WACC is $112.33.
How is the Old Dominion Freight Line Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The ODFL 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the ODFL price target account for dilution?
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 208M to 208M by 2030 (a 0% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 0%.
What is the analyst consensus on ODFL stock?
26 analysts cover ODFL with an average 12-month price target of $206.29. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.