NNI
Nelnet Inc
NYSE: NNI · FINANCIAL SERVICES · CREDIT SERVICES
$122.52
-0.32% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$4.68B
P/E ratio
11.32
P/S ratio
2.85x
EPS (TTM)
$11.51
Dividend yield
0.96%
52W range
$111 – $144
Volume
0.1M
Nelnet Inc (NNI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed NNI price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$122.52
Today
Analyst consensus
$140.00
+14.27% · 12M
2030 Base
$-103.60
-184.56% future
NPV today
$-103.60
@ 9% WACC
3 analysts:
1 Buy2 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided specific multi-year revenue targets through 2030. Recent Q1 2026 earnings showed net income decline but reaffirmed quarterly dividend at $0.33/share, signaling commitment to shareholder returns despite earnings volatility. Company acquired $3.34B in loans (Pay Later receivables) in Q1 2026, indicating continued portfolio expansion strategy.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
NNI · Nelnet Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$-103.60
NPV today: $-103.60
Base case (2030)
$-103.60
NPV today: $-103.60
Bull case (2030)
$-11.09
NPV today: $-11.09
WallStSmart.com
NNI financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.3B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.4B |
| Revenue growth | 22.6% | 2.3% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.5% |
| Net margin | — | 13.8% | 14.7% | 15.1% | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| EPS | $11.95 | $9.29 | $10.50 | $11.75 | $13.10 | $14.65 |
| Diluted shares | — | 25M | 25M | 26M | 26M | 26M |
| Net debt | — | $6.21B | $5.95B | $5.67B | $5.37B | $5.03B |
| P/S multiple | — | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $-177.19 | $-162.16 | $-144.44 | $-124.93 | $-103.60 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.4B | $2.4B | $2.4B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 1.0x | 2.0x |
| Diluted shares | 26M | 26M | 26M |
| Net debt | $5.03B | $5.03B | $5.03B |
| Implied P/E † | -7x | -7x | -1x |
| 2030 Price | $-103.60 | $-103.60 | $-11.09 |
| NPV @ 9% | $-103.60 | $-103.60 | $-11.09 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because NNI is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $-103.60 base case
NNI catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Expansion of Pay Later receivables portfolio (acquired $3.34B in Q1 2026) driving Asset Generation & Management segment growth
+ Campus Commerce and education technology services growth as higher education institutions standardize payment solutions
+ Loan servicing backlog expansion through acquisitions of Australian Invision Digital and Passtab Safety platforms in 2026
+ Fee-based business scaling (Systems and Education Technology Services) with higher gross margins than originations
+ Potential federal student loan servicing contract extensions or new government contracts
Key risks
- Significant earnings volatility (Q1 2026 net income down 13.9% YoY despite 20.5% revenue growth in FY2025, EPS collapsed from $11.79 to $9.29 in 2026 estimates)
- Higher loss provisioning requirements as loan portfolio grows ($3.34B acquisition in Q1 requires increased reserves)
- Interest rate sensitivity: rising rates compress net interest margins while falling rates reduce loan origination demand
- Regulatory risk on student loan servicing given political sensitivity of federal student loan programs
- Leverage constraints: Debt/Equity ratio of 2.06 limits M&A capacity relative to organic growth needs
- Mean reversion in profit margins from exceptional 25.6% (FY2025) to more normalized 18-22% range as scale increases
Methodology · Nelnet Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Nelnet Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 3 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for NNI by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($5.03B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 9% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.827) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 1.0x / bull 2.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 21, 2026.
NNI price target FAQ
What is the NNI price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Nelnet Inc 2030 base case is $-103.60 per share, with a bull case of $-11.09 and bear case of $-103.60. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 9% WACC is $-103.60.
How is the Nelnet Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The NNI 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the NNI price target account for dilution?
Nelnet Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 25M to 26M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on NNI stock?
3 analysts cover NNI with an average 12-month price target of $140.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.