NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc
NASDAQ: NBIX · HEALTHCARE · DRUG MANUFACTURERS - SPECIALTY & GENERIC
$150.59
-2.07% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$16.06B
P/E ratio
24.58
P/S ratio
5.18x
EPS (TTM)
$6.50
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$122 – $170
Volume
1.2M
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed NBIX price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$150.59
Today
Analyst consensus
$190.99
+26.83% · 12M
2030 Base
$247.77
+64.53% future
NPV today
$186.95
@ 6% WACC
27 analysts:
17 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Kyle Gano has not provided explicit multi-year revenue targets through 2030 in public guidance. However, management guided FY2026 revenue of $3.58B (25.1% growth) and FY2027 revenue of $4.06B (13.6% growth) per consensus estimates. The company emphasized CRENESSITY (crinecerfont) for CAH as a potential blockbuster with significant peak sales potential and is expanding into obesity/metabolic indications via the $2.9B Soleno acquisition (VYKAT XR for Prader-Willi syndrome), signaling confidence in sustained double-digit to mid-20s% growth through mid-decade.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
NBIX · Neurocrine Biosciences Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$115.00
NPV today: $86.77
Base case (2030)
$247.77
NPV today: $186.95
Bull case (2030)
$380.53
NPV today: $287.12
WallStSmart.com
NBIX financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.9B | $3.6B | $4.3B | $5.2B | $6.1B | $7.0B |
| Revenue growth | 21.4% | 25.1% | 21.5% | 19.8% | 17.5% | 15.1% |
| Net margin | — | 17.3% | 19.7% | 21.3% | 22.3% | 22.4% |
| EPS | $5.81 | $6.07 | $8.30 | $10.65 | $12.95 | $14.88 |
| Diluted shares | — | 102M | 103M | 104M | 105M | 106M |
| Net debt | — | $-1.62B | $-2.30B | $-3.11B | $-4.07B | $-5.16B |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $121.37 | $148.92 | $179.84 | $213.20 | $247.77 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.0B | $7.0B | $7.0B |
| P/S multiple | 1.0x | 3.0x | 5.0x |
| Diluted shares | 106M | 106M | 106M |
| Net debt | $-5.16B | $-5.16B | $-5.16B |
| Implied P/E † | 8x | 17x | 26x |
| 2030 Price | $115.00 | $247.77 | $380.53 |
| NPV @ 6% | $86.77 | $186.95 | $287.12 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because NBIX is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $247.77 base case
NBIX catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ CRENESSITY (crinecerfont) label expansion and peak sales acceleration in classic CAH and potentially ACTH-dependent Cushing's syndrome; blockbuster potential could drive $500M-$1B+ annual revenues by 2028-2029
+ VYKAT XR commercial ramp post-Soleno acquisition; Prader-Willi syndrome is a rare, high-need indication with limited competition and potential for $200M-$400M peak sales
+ INGREZZA sustained growth in tardive dyskinesia (new mild TD data supports label expansion and deeper market penetration); current franchise generates ~$1.1B+ annually with runway for 5-8% annual growth
+ Pipeline advancement in obesity/GLP-1 adjacent indications (NBIP-2118 for CRF2 agonist in early Stage 1); significant TAM if efficacious
+ Potential pediatric epilepsy indication success; early signals suggest additional rare disease expansion opportunities
Key risks
- Portfolio concentration: INGREZZA + CRENESSITY represent majority of revenue; loss of exclusivity or clinical safety signal in either product could materially impact projections
- CRENESSITY adoption curve uncertainty; peak sales estimates range widely ($400M to $1.5B); slower uptake vs. consensus would pressure 2028-2030 growth
- Payer resistance and pricing pressure on INGREZZA in competitive movement disorder space; managed care pushing toward generics and lower-cost alternatives
- Integration risks from Soleno acquisition; VYKAT XR commercial execution depends on sales force capability and market adoption in rare disease setting
- Regulatory/clinical risk in late-stage pipeline (CRENESSITY label extensions, obesity pipeline); negative data would impair growth assumptions
Methodology · Neurocrine Biosciences Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 27 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (6% cumulative for NBIX by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-5.16B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 6% WACC (CAPM: beta 0.336) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 1.0x / base 3.0x / bull 5.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
NBIX price target FAQ
What is the NBIX price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Neurocrine Biosciences Inc 2030 base case is $247.77 per share, with a bull case of $380.53 and bear case of $115.00. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 6% WACC is $186.95.
How is the Neurocrine Biosciences Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The NBIX 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the NBIX price target account for dilution?
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 101M to 106M by 2030 (a 6% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 6%.
What is the analyst consensus on NBIX stock?
27 analysts cover NBIX with an average 12-month price target of $190.99. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.