Murphy USA Inc
NYSE: MUSA · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · SPECIALTY RETAIL
Updated 2026-04-29
Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for MUSA.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
MUSA historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in MUSA's own 5Y range.
MUSA intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
MUSA valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 21.36x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 0.56x
Is MUSA overvalued in 2026?
Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) currently trades at $514.45 per share with a market capitalization of $9,517,407,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 54/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 21.4x, above its 5-year median of 16.6x. The PEG ratio of 1.51 points to a price that reasonably reflects expected earnings growth.
Looking at its own history, MUSA is currently trading more expensive than 96% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 96th percentile of its historical range, a zone where forward returns have typically been muted.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates MUSA's intrinsic value at $1,269.43 per share, against the current market price of $514.45. This implies a margin of safety of +69.99%. A meaningful cushion exists against model error, making this a reasonable risk-adjusted entry.
Financial quality is a concern. The Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags weakening fundamentals that deserve closer scrutiny before the valuation case can be fully trusted.
Bottom line: MUSA trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 54/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is MUSA overvalued in 2026?
Based on a Smart Value Score of 54/100, MUSA is fairly valued. Price reasonably reflects current fundamentals with limited cushion in either direction.
What is MUSA's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates MUSA's intrinsic value at $1,269.43 per share, versus the current price of $514.45. This produces a margin of safety of +69.99%.
What P/E ratio does MUSA trade at?
MUSA trades at a P/E of 21.4x on trailing twelve-month earnings, compared to its 5-year median of 16.6x.
Is MUSA a buy based on valuation?
WallStSmart does not issue buy or sell recommendations. Our Smart Value Score of 54/100 reflects the combined read on growth, quality, and price. The profile is balanced. Best suited for investors with an existing thesis.
How does MUSA's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, MUSA currently sits in the 96th percentile of its own 5Y range. That is historically expensive relative to where it has traded over the period.
What is MUSA's Smart Value Score?
MUSA's Smart Value Score is 54/100. The Smart Value Score is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation attractiveness into a single 0-100 read. Scores above 75 are rare and indicate strong multi-factor alignment.