MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc
NASDAQ: MTSI · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$365.88
-9.76% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$28.98B
P/E ratio
160.96
P/S ratio
26.99x
EPS (TTM)
$2.36
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$118 – $419
Volume
1.4M
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MTSI price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$365.88
Today
Analyst consensus
$389.00
+6.32% · 12M
2030 Base
$468.97
+28.18% future
NPV today
$263.72
@ 13% WACC
19 analysts:
10 Buy3 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Stephen Daly has not publicly committed to a specific 2030 revenue target, but Q2 2026 guidance increased Data Center revenue growth to >60% for FY2026. Management emphasized 'step function upside' in Q3 guidance with record book-to-bill ratio and accelerating ramps across Industrial/Defense, Data Center, and Telecom segments. The company is guiding Q3 2026 revenue $331-339M (implying FY2026 run rate >$1.3B) with continued margin expansion.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MTSI · MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$223.23
NPV today: $125.53
Base case (2030)
$468.97
NPV today: $263.72
Bull case (2030)
$925.36
NPV today: $520.37
WallStSmart.com
MTSI financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.7B |
| Revenue growth | 32.6% | 36.5% | 27.3% | 19.7% | 16.4% | 15.4% |
| Net margin | — | 30.4% | 31.7% | 32.6% | 33.3% | 33.9% |
| EPS | $1.02 | $5.25 | $6.95 | $8.55 | $10.15 | $11.90 |
| Diluted shares | — | 76M | 77M | 77M | 77M | 77M |
| Net debt | — | $313.69M | $67.05M | $-228.04M | $-571.58M | $-967.97M |
| P/S multiple | — | 13.0x | 13.0x | 13.0x | 13.0x | 13.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $220.36 | $284.24 | $343.41 | $403.37 | $468.97 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.7B | $2.7B | $2.7B |
| P/S multiple | 6.0x | 13.0x | 26.0x |
| Diluted shares | 77M | 77M | 77M |
| Net debt | $-967.97M | $-967.97M | $-967.97M |
| Implied P/E † | 19x | 39x | 78x |
| 2030 Price | $223.23 | $468.97 | $925.36 |
| NPV @ 13% | $125.53 | $263.72 | $520.37 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MTSI is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $468.97 base case
MTSI catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Data Center optical interconnect ramp acceleration (60%+ growth guidance, hyperscaler capex $100B+ annually through 2028)
+ AI/5G infrastructure buildout driving Industrial/Defense and Telecom demand; record backlog and book-to-bill ratio
+ Gross margin expansion (already 57% in Q2 2026, path to 60%+ via scale and mix shift to higher-margin Data Center)
+ Supply chain strengthening (April 2026 supply chain agreements solidifying multi-year revenue visibility)
+ Potential M&A or strategic partnerships in optical/connectivity space given $286M net cash and $27B market cap
Key risks
- Valuation risk: 162x P/E on TTM basis; stock up 213% YTD raises timing/reversal risk if growth disappoints
- Concentration risk: heavy Data Center exposure (>40% estimated revenue) vulnerable to hyperscaler capex pullback
- Insider selling: $16M+ insider stock sales in May 2026 signals potential overvaluation; Susan Ocampo (founder proxy) sold 400K shares for $132M
- Macro/geopolitical: U.S.-China semiconductor tensions; export controls on advanced chips could impact international revenue
- Mean reversion: 156x forward P/E implies near-perfect execution; any miss could trigger sharp multiple compression
Methodology · MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast model
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 19 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for MTSI by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-967.97M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 13% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.599) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 6.0x / base 13.0x / bull 26.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
MTSI price target FAQ
What is the MTSI price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc 2030 base case is $468.97 per share, with a bull case of $925.36 and bear case of $223.23. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 13% WACC is $263.72.
How is the MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MTSI 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MTSI price target account for dilution?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 76M to 77M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on MTSI stock?
19 analysts cover MTSI with an average 12-month price target of $389.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.