Vail Resorts Inc
NYSE: MTN · CONSUMER CYCLICAL · RESORTS & CASINOS
Updated 2026-06-05
Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for MTN.
Current price exceeds what fundamentals support. Risk/reward skewed unfavorably.
MTN historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in MTN's own 5Y range.
MTN intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
MTN valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 28.73x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 1.68x
Is MTN overvalued in 2026?
Vail Resorts Inc (MTN) currently trades at $123.70 per share with a market capitalization of $4,750,305,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock appears richly valued with a Smart Value Score of 48/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 28.7x, above its 5-year median of 25.7x. The PEG ratio of 3.33 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.
Looking at its own history, MTN is currently trading more expensive than 66% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 66th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates MTN's intrinsic value at $163.27 per share, against the current market price of $123.70. This implies a margin of safety of +14.28%. The stock is priced close to its estimated fair value, offering limited upside without further operational improvement.
The Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: MTN appears richly valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 48/100. At current levels the risk/reward is skewed against the buyer. A materially lower price or significant operational improvement would be needed to change the picture.
Frequently asked questions
Is MTN overvalued?
MTN scores 48/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade C), a weak overall profile. The DCF also shows a positive margin of safety, so price and fundamentals line up reasonably well.
What is MTN's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates MTN's intrinsic value at $163.27 per share, versus the current price of $123.70, a margin of safety of +14.28%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price below it means the market is pricing the stock below that conservative estimate.
What P/E ratio does MTN trade at?
MTN trades at a P/E of 28.7x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 25.7x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting above its own median means the stock is pricier than usual relative to its earnings.
Is MTN a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for MTN is Sell, from a Smart Value Score of 48/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile skews cautious, and a better price or clearer operating improvement would strengthen the case. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does MTN's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, MTN sits in the 66th percentile of its own 5Y range, above its long-run median relative to where it has traded. A high percentile means today's multiple is near the top of its historical band.
What is MTN's Smart Value Score?
MTN's Smart Value Score is 48/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.