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MRNA

Moderna Inc

NASDAQ: MRNA · HEALTHCARE · BIOTECHNOLOGY

$45.72
-3.01% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$18.13B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
9.33x
EPS (TTM)
$-7.26
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$22 – $60
Volume
7.5M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Moderna Inc (MRNA) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$45.72
Consensus
$34.27
-25.04%
2030 Target
$160.94
+252.01%
DCF
$133.04
+69.55% MoS
12 analysts:
1 Buy9 Hold4 Sell

Management guidance

No specific CEO revenue guidance found in provided materials. Moderna is in transition post-COVID, with management focus on pipeline diversification (flu, RSV, other vaccines) rather than numeric targets. Company settling $950M patent dispute clears near-term overhang but does not provide forward revenue direction.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$263.36
$5.3B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$160.94
$5.3B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$107.29
$5.3B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$6.8B$3.2B$1.9B$2.1B$2.5B$3.2B$4.1B$5.3B
Revenue growth—-53.3%-39.2%8.8%20.9%25.5%28.1%29.3%
EPS$-12.41$-9.28$-7.27$-6.81$-4.94$-2.10$0.85$3.45
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$63.40$78.03$97.54$121.93$160.94

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ FDA approvals for seasonal flu vaccine and mRNA RSV combination vaccine (mRESVIA) - EMA positive opinion already received
+ Patent settlement ($950M-$2.25B total) removes legal overhang and clears vaccine pipeline
+ Shift from COVID dependency to diversified vaccine portfolio (flu, RSV, other seasonal vaccines)
+ Potential label expansions and international approvals for existing vaccine candidates
+ Recovery in Spikevax (COVID) demand as variant protection becomes endemic market rather than pandemic
Key risks
- Severe revenue collapse: -64.5% (2023), -52.75% (2024), -39.93% (2025) — COVID revenue cliff ongoing
- Unprofitability: -145.2% profit margin, EPS -$7.26 TTM; negative EPS forecasted through 2027 (-$6.81 in 2026, -$4.94 in 2027)
- Competitive pressure: BioNTech (BNTX) co-founders exiting to launch competing mRNA company; other pharma (GSK, Merck) competing in vaccines
- Regulatory uncertainty: FDA vaccine scrutiny under departing chief Vinay Prasad; tariff risk on branded/patented drugs (up to 100% potential)
- Cash burn trajectory: Operating margin -158.13%; company burning through $3.88B net cash (Q4 2025) despite positive FCF quarter
- Pipeline execution risk: Multiple vaccine programs in clinical trials with uncertain approval timelines; no near-term blockbuster identified

Methodology

Moderna Inc's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 12 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 7, 2026.