MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems Inc
NASDAQ: MPWR · TECHNOLOGY · SEMICONDUCTORS
$1,661.10
-10.38% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$79.84B
P/E ratio
116.32
P/S ratio
27.00x
EPS (TTM)
$13.97
Dividend yield
0.43%
52W range
$665 – $1,714
Volume
0.6M
Monolithic Power Systems Inc (MPWR) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MPWR price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$1,661.10
Today
Analyst consensus
$1,599.17
-3.73% · 12M
2030 Base
$2,922.15
+75.92% future
NPV today
$1,590.80
@ 14% WACC
15 analysts:
12 Buy3 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Management has not provided explicit 2026-2030 revenue targets in recent earnings calls. However, CEO Michael Hsing has emphasized strong AI/data center power demand and stated the company is well-positioned for sustained hypergrowth driven by hyperscaler capex (Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon allocating $250B+ combined through 2027-2028). The company guides quarterly/annual growth but does not publish multi-year explicit revenue ceilings; historical 27% 5Y CAGR and 26.4% (2025) YoY growth establish the baseline growth trajectory.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MPWR · Monolithic Power Systems Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$1,509.91
NPV today: $821.99
Base case (2030)
$2,922.15
NPV today: $1,590.80
Bull case (2030)
$5,982.01
NPV today: $3,256.57
WallStSmart.com
MPWR financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | $4.7B | $6.1B | $7.8B | $9.8B | $11.7B |
| Revenue growth | 26.4% | 66.7% | 31.2% | 28.7% | 24.2% | 19.8% |
| Net margin | — | 40.8% | 42.0% | 43.1% | 42.7% | 42.3% |
| EPS | $17.77 | $38.50 | $52.00 | $68.50 | $84.00 | $99.50 |
| Diluted shares | — | 49M | 49M | 49M | 50M | 50M |
| Net debt | — | $-563.03M | $-1.30B | $-2.25B | $-3.43B | $-4.85B |
| P/S multiple | — | 12.0x | 12.0x | 12.0x | 12.0x | 12.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $1,144.93 | $1,510.37 | $1,951.47 | $2,431.79 | $2,922.15 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7B | $11.7B | $11.7B |
| P/S multiple | 6.0x | 12.0x | 25.0x |
| Diluted shares | 50M | 50M | 50M |
| Net debt | $-4.85B | $-4.85B | $-4.85B |
| Implied P/E † | 15x | 29x | 60x |
| 2030 Price | $1,509.91 | $2,922.15 | $5,982.01 |
| NPV @ 14% | $821.99 | $1,590.80 | $3,256.57 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MPWR is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $2,922.15 base case
MPWR catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Sustained AI/data center power semiconductor demand (hyperscaler capex $250B+ through 2028)
+ EV and ADAS semiconductor penetration (automotive electrification mega-trend)
+ New product launches in high-margin integrated power modules and control ICs
+ Market share gains in competitive power management (fragmented $40B+ TAM)
+ Potential M&A or strategic partnerships to accelerate product portfolio
Key risks
- Geopolitical/China export restrictions on semiconductor sales (U.S.-China trade tensions, TSMC/Samsung risks)
- AI capex normalization post-2027 if hyperscaler spending moderates or efficiency gains reduce per-unit power requirements
- Competitive intensity from Texas Instruments, Infineon, NXP, and specialized ASIC designs replacing discrete power management
- Valuation multiple compression if growth decelerates below 20% or if semiconductor sector faces cyclical downturn
- Supply chain disruptions and inventory normalization after 2024-2026 restocking cycle
Methodology · Monolithic Power Systems Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Monolithic Power Systems Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 15 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for MPWR by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-4.85B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 14% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.742) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 6.0x / base 12.0x / bull 25.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
MPWR price target FAQ
What is the MPWR price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Monolithic Power Systems Inc 2030 base case is $2,922.15 per share, with a bull case of $5,982.01 and bear case of $1,509.91. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 14% WACC is $1,590.80.
How is the Monolithic Power Systems Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MPWR 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MPWR price target account for dilution?
Monolithic Power Systems Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 49M to 50M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on MPWR stock?
15 analysts cover MPWR with an average 12-month price target of $1,599.17. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.