Marathon Petroleum Corp
NYSE: MPC · ENERGY · OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING
Updated 2026-09-11
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for MPC.
Valued
Valuation reasonably reflects current fundamentals. Limited margin of safety at these levels.
MPC historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in MPC's own 5Y range.
MPC intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
MPC valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 13.61x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 0.72x
Is MPC overvalued in 2026?
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) currently trades at $395.93 per share with a market capitalization of $111,186,952,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock trades at a fair valuation with a Smart Value Score of 73/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 13.6x, below its 5-year median of 16.5x. The PEG ratio of 1.90 points to a price that reasonably reflects expected earnings growth.
Looking at its own history, MPC is currently trading cheaper than 62% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 38th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates MPC's intrinsic value at $195.86 per share, against the current market price of $395.93. This implies a premium to fair value of -6.53%. The stock is priced close to its estimated fair value, offering limited upside without further operational improvement.
The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: MPC trades at a fair valuation on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 73/100. The valuation is defensible but offers no obvious bargain. Patience or a better entry price may reward disciplined buyers.
Frequently asked questions
Is MPC overvalued?
MPC scores 73/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade B), a mixed overall profile. On valuation specifically, the DCF puts intrinsic value below the current price, so the stock is expensive on cash flow today. The score reflects growth and quality carrying it, not a cheap entry point.
What is MPC's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates MPC's intrinsic value at $195.86 per share, versus the current price of $395.93, a margin of safety of -6.53%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price above it means the market is paying up for growth the model does not yet assume.
What P/E ratio does MPC trade at?
MPC trades at a P/E of 13.6x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 16.5x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting below its own median means the stock is cheaper than usual relative to its earnings.
Is MPC a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for MPC is Buy, from a Smart Value Score of 73/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile is balanced and best suited to investors who already have a thesis. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does MPC's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, MPC sits in the 38th percentile of its own 5Y range, below its long-run median relative to where it has traded. A low percentile means today's multiple is near the bottom of its historical band.
What is MPC's Smart Value Score?
MPC's Smart Value Score is 73/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.