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MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corp

NYSE: MPC · ENERGY · OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING

$241.81
+3.96% today

Updated 2026-04-29

Market cap
$66.01B
P/E ratio
16.95
P/S ratio
0.50x
EPS (TTM)
$13.22
Dividend yield
1.73%
52W range
$130 – $256
Volume
2.6M
OverviewPrice TargetsFinancialsValuationInsidersEarnings

Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030

Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.

Price target summary

Current
$241.81
Consensus
$225.21
-6.86%
2030 Target
$5,729.00
+2269.22%
DCF
$305.40
+31.68% MoS
14 analysts:
7 Buy5 Hold1 Sell

Management guidance

No specific CEO revenue targets disclosed in available research. Management has emphasized operational cost structure improvements since the Andeavor combination and positioning to benefit from current high refining margins and tight diesel markets. Guidance appears focused on capital allocation and shareholder returns rather than absolute revenue targets.

Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence

Revenue & price projection

Actual revenue Projected revenue Base case Bull to bear range
Bull case (2030)
$9,524.16
$140.5B Rev × 20x P/S
Base case (2030)
$5,729.00
$140.5B Rev × 12x P/S
Bear case (2030)
$3,819.33
$140.5B Rev × 8x P/S

Financial forecast — research-backed

Metric2023202420252026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)2029 (E)2030 (E)
Revenue$148.4B$138.9B$132.7B$133.5B$133.4B$135.2B$137.8B$140.5B
Revenue growth—-6.4%-4.4%0.3%-0.1%1.4%1.9%2.0%
EPS$23.53$9.34$10.80$13.01$13.87$14.50$15.20$15.95
P/S ratio———12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x12.0x
Implied price———$5,438.93$5,438.93$5,511.44$5,608.14$5,729.00

Catalysts & risks

Growth catalysts
+ Sustained elevated crude oil and refined product prices from geopolitical tensions (Iran conflict, Middle East disruptions)
+ Tight global diesel and jet fuel markets driving refining margin expansion
+ Strong operational performance and cost structure improvements post-Andeavor integration
+ Potential new U.S. refinery construction (first in ~50 years) expanding industry capacity
+ High dividend yield (1.58-1.68%) supporting institutional demand and stock stability
Key risks
- Oil price normalization if geopolitical tensions resolve, compressing refining margins
- Cyclical refining industry exposure to commodity price volatility
- Potential regulatory headwinds on fuel production and emissions standards
- Executive insider stock sales indicating potential valuation concerns at current levels
- Refinery operational disruptions (recent outages cited) impacting throughput

Methodology

Marathon Petroleum Corp's forward estimates are derived from AI-powered research synthesis combining analyst consensus from 14 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts from industry research. Revenue and EPS projections use analyst consensus where available and conservative extrapolation with growth deceleration for outer years. Price targets are calculated using a tiered Price-to-Sales (P/S) methodology, where the P/S multiple is determined by the projected revenue growth rate.

WallStSmart proprietary research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: April 6, 2026.