MP Materials Corp
NYSE: MP · BASIC MATERIALS · OTHER INDUSTRIAL METALS & MINING
Updated 2026-06-12
MP Materials Corp (MP) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for MP.
Current price exceeds what fundamentals support. Risk/reward skewed unfavorably.
MP historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in MP's own 5Y range.
MP intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
MP valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 29.48x
Is MP overvalued in 2026?
MP Materials Corp (MP) currently trades at $57.55 per share with a market capitalization of $10,245,177,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock appears richly valued with a Smart Value Score of 28/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
MP currently has no meaningful P/E ratio, which typically signals that the company is unprofitable, near breakeven, or emerging from a loss-making period. With a P/S ratio of 29.5x, the market is valuing the company primarily on its revenue rather than its earnings.
Looking at its own history, MP is currently trading cheaper than 100% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 0th percentile of its historical range, a level that has historically coincided with attractive entry points.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates MP's intrinsic value at $37.03 per share, against the current market price of $57.55. This implies a premium to fair value of -55.41%. The current price sits well above what projected cash flows justify, implying investors are paying for growth that has not yet materialized.
The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.
Bottom line: MP appears richly valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 28/100. At current levels the risk/reward is skewed against the buyer. A materially lower price or significant operational improvement would be needed to change the picture.
Frequently asked questions
Is MP overvalued?
MP scores 28/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade F), a weak overall profile. On valuation specifically, the DCF puts intrinsic value below the current price, so the stock is expensive on cash flow today. The score reflects growth and quality carrying it, not a cheap entry point.
What is MP's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates MP's intrinsic value at $37.03 per share, versus the current price of $57.55, a margin of safety of -55.41%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price above it means the market is paying up for growth the model does not yet assume.
What P/E ratio does MP trade at?
MP does not have a meaningful P/E right now, usually a sign of unprofitability or an earnings transition. For unprofitable growth names, price-to-sales is the more useful gauge.
Is MP a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for MP is Strong Sell, from a Smart Value Score of 28/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile skews cautious, and a better price or clearer operating improvement would strengthen the case. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does MP's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, MP sits in the 0th percentile of its own 5Y range, historically cheap relative to where it has traded. A low percentile means today's multiple is near the bottom of its historical band.
What is MP's Smart Value Score?
MP's Smart Value Score is 28/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.