WallStSmart
MFA

MFA Financial Inc

NYSE: MFA · REAL ESTATE · REIT - MORTGAGE

$9.52
-3.38% today

Updated 2026-06-03

Market cap
$947.43M
P/E ratio
10.55
P/S ratio
3.29x
EPS (TTM)
$0.88
Dividend yield
15.50%
52W range
$8 – $10
Volume
1.4M

MFA Financial Inc (MFA) Stock Valuation Analysis

Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for MFA.

WallStSmart Verdict
Overvalued

Current price exceeds what fundamentals support. Risk/reward skewed unfavorably.

Smart Value Score: 47 / 100
P/E (TTM)
10.6x
vs 5Y median of 8.0x
PEG
2.48
Elevated vs growth
Margin of Safety
+48.16%
Fair value $18.75 vs $9.52
EV / EBITDA
0.0x

MFA historical valuation range

Where current P/E sits in MFA's own 5Y range.

NOW
7.0x
5Y Low
7.8x
25th
8.0x
Median
10.8x
75th
28.2x
5Y High
MFA is trading more expensive than 65% of the last 5Y.
65th percentile · Above median

MFA intrinsic value (DCF)

DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.

Current price
$9.52
Market value
Intrinsic value
$18.75
DCF estimate
Margin of safety
+48.16%
+97.0% upside to fair value

Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.

MFA valuation signals

Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.

PEG above 2.0
PEG of 2.48 suggests price is running ahead of growth rate. Caution warranted.
!
P/E in mid-range
P/E sits at the 65th percentile of the 5Y range. Neither cheap nor rich historically.
Strong margin of safety
Current price 48.2% below DCF intrinsic value estimate. Meaningful downside cushion.

P/E Ratio — History

Current: 10.55x

P/S Ratio — History

Current: 3.29x

Is MFA overvalued in 2026?

MFA Financial Inc (MFA) currently trades at $9.52 per share with a market capitalization of $947,431,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock appears richly valued with a Smart Value Score of 47/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.

The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 10.6x, above its 5-year median of 8.0x. The PEG ratio of 2.48 indicates the price has run ahead of the underlying growth rate.

Looking at its own history, MFA is currently trading more expensive than 65% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 65th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.

Our discounted cash flow model estimates MFA's intrinsic value at $18.75 per share, against the current market price of $9.52. This implies a margin of safety of +48.16%. A meaningful cushion exists against model error, making this a reasonable risk-adjusted entry.

The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 puts financial quality in a middling range, neither a standout strength nor an obvious red flag.

Bottom line: MFA appears richly valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 47/100. At current levels the risk/reward is skewed against the buyer. A materially lower price or significant operational improvement would be needed to change the picture.

Frequently asked questions

Is MFA overvalued?

MFA scores 47/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade C), a weak overall profile. The DCF also shows a positive margin of safety, so price and fundamentals line up reasonably well.

What is MFA's fair value?

Our DCF model estimates MFA's intrinsic value at $18.75 per share, versus the current price of $9.52, a margin of safety of +48.16%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price below it means the market is pricing the stock below that conservative estimate.

What P/E ratio does MFA trade at?

MFA trades at a P/E of 10.6x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 8.0x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting above its own median means the stock is pricier than usual relative to its earnings.

Is MFA a buy based on valuation?

Our Smart Value rating for MFA is Sell, from a Smart Value Score of 47/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile skews cautious, and a better price or clearer operating improvement would strengthen the case. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.

How does MFA's valuation compare to its history?

On P/E, MFA sits in the 65th percentile of its own 5Y range, above its long-run median relative to where it has traded. A high percentile means today's multiple is near the top of its historical band.

What is MFA's Smart Value Score?

MFA's Smart Value Score is 47/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.