MDGL
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc
NASDAQ: MDGL · HEALTHCARE · BIOTECHNOLOGY
$480.77
+1.37% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$11.08B
P/E ratio
—
P/S ratio
9.79x
EPS (TTM)
$-13.51
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$275 – $615
Volume
0.3M
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed MDGL price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$480.77
Today
Analyst consensus
$687.00
+42.90% · 12M
2030 Base
$1,464.12
+204.54% future
NPV today
$943.53
@ 10% WACC
17 analysts:
13 Buy3 Hold1 Sell
Management guidance
Madrigal has not issued explicit long-term revenue targets through 2030. Management indicated in Q1 2026 that Rezdiffra is still in early-stage market penetration with 42,250 patients and strong physician adoption. CEO William Sibold emphasized progression toward profitability 'beyond 2026' and pipeline expansion, but no specific 2026-2030 revenue guidance was provided in recent earnings calls. Current trajectory: Rezdiffra $1.1B TTM revenue in May 2026 with 127% YoY Q1 growth.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
MDGL · Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$383.42
NPV today: $247.09
Base case (2030)
$1,464.12
NPV today: $943.53
Bull case (2030)
$3,085.17
NPV today: $1,988.19
WallStSmart.com
MDGL financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $1.8B | $2.6B | $3.7B | $5.0B | $6.4B |
| Revenue growth | 432.1% | 82.8% | 49.7% | 42.3% | 34.3% | 27.3% |
| Net margin | — | -3.3% | 7.6% | 13.8% | 18.1% | 21.5% |
| EPS | $-12.75 | $-2.50 | $8.50 | $22.00 | $38.50 | $58.00 |
| Diluted shares | — | 23M | 23M | 23M | 24M | 24M |
| Net debt | — | $1.22B | $2.53B | $4.39B | $6.90B | $10.09B |
| P/S multiple | — | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x | 7.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $475.73 | $678.43 | $927.12 | $1,197.87 | $1,464.12 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.4B | $6.4B | $6.4B |
| P/S multiple | 3.0x | 7.0x | 13.0x |
| Diluted shares | 24M | 24M | 24M |
| Net debt | $10.09B | $10.09B | $10.09B |
| Implied P/E † | 7x | 25x | 53x |
| 2030 Price | $383.42 | $1,464.12 | $3,085.17 |
| NPV @ 10% | $247.09 | $943.53 | $1,988.19 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because MDGL is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $1,464.12 base case
MDGL catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Rezdiffra expansion into additional MASH patient populations and expanded label indications
+ ARO-PNPLA3 (genetic MASH therapy via Arrowhead deal) Phase 2 data and clinical progression targeting Hispanic/high-risk populations
+ Profitability inflection point expected 2027-2028 as SG&A leverage improves and Rezdiffra gross margins expand with scale
+ Additional siRNA pipeline programs (Ribo/Ribocure licensing deals) maturation and potential combination therapy approvals
+ International expansion of Rezdiffra beyond US (approval in EU/other markets would unlock significant TAM)
+ MASH outcomes trial data supporting cardiovascular/portal hypertension risk reduction (EASL 2026 presentation)
Key risks
- Competitive MASH market intensification: GLP-1 drugs (semaglutide, tirzepatide) and other non-invasive therapies may cannibalize MASH patient share or delay Rezdiffra adoption
- Rezdiffra patient penetration plateau: currently 42,250 patients on drug; if market saturates faster than expected or patient growth stalls, revenue growth could decelerate sharply
- Regulatory/safety headwinds: any adverse safety signal or label restriction on Rezdiffra would impair revenue and clinical credibility
- Cash burn and financing risk: company lost $309M TTM despite $1.1B revenue; if losses don't narrow by 2027, dilutive financing may be needed, pressuring shareholder value
- Pipeline execution risk: ARO-PNPLA3 and siRNA programs are early-stage; clinical failures or delays would eliminate future revenue upside
- Patent/IP challenges: Rezdiffra is a small molecule; competitive generics or biosimilar pathways could emerge if label/composition IP is challenged
Methodology · Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 stock forecast model
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 17 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (2% cumulative for MDGL by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($10.09B by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (sector fallback) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 3.0x / base 7.0x / bull 13.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
MDGL price target FAQ
What is the MDGL price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 base case is $1,464.12 per share, with a bull case of $3,085.17 and bear case of $383.42. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $943.53.
How is the Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The MDGL 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the MDGL price target account for dilution?
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc is projected to grow diluted share count from 23M to 24M by 2030 (a 2% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 2%.
What is the analyst consensus on MDGL stock?
17 analysts cover MDGL with an average 12-month price target of $687.00. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.