LGND
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
NASDAQ: LGND · HEALTHCARE · BIOTECHNOLOGY
$220.48
+0.46% today
Updated 2026-06-05
Market cap
$5.12B
P/E ratio
33.27
P/S ratio
18.66x
EPS (TTM)
$7.68
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$110 – $259
Volume
0.2M
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (LGND) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed LGND price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$220.48
Today
Analyst consensus
$271.80
+23.28% · 12M
2030 Base
$344.03
+56.04% future
NPV today
$218.03
@ 10% WACC
10 analysts:
7 Buy1 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
Ligand provided 2026 revenue guidance of $245M–$285M (midpoint $265M, implying 6.0%–14.6% growth from 2025's $268.1M base). CEO Todd Davis and team raised 5-year royalty revenue CAGR to at least 23% through 2030, driven by existing commercial programs (Filspari, Ohtuvayre, Zelsuvmi) and $1B in deployable capital. Post-XOMA acquisition (announced May 2026), management expects 2026 adjusted EPS of $8.50–$9.50 and projects an incremental $1.50/share EPS in 2027 from the deal.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
LGND · Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$187.07
NPV today: $118.55
Base case (2030)
$344.03
NPV today: $218.03
Bull case (2030)
$618.71
NPV today: $392.10
WallStSmart.com
LGND financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.3B | $0.3B | $0.4B | $0.5B | $0.7B | $0.8B |
| Revenue growth | 60.4% | 10.0% | 38.6% | 31.7% | 25.9% | 20.6% |
| Net margin | — | 61.8% | 62.3% | 62.9% | 64.1% | 66.3% |
| EPS | $8.04 | $9.00 | $12.50 | $16.50 | $21.00 | $26.00 |
| Diluted shares | — | 20M | 20M | 21M | 21M | 21M |
| Net debt | — | $-258.19M | $-320.27M | $-402.03M | $-504.99M | $-629.15M |
| P/S multiple | — | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x | 8.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $129.35 | $176.28 | $229.37 | $286.48 | $344.03 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0.8B | $0.8B | $0.8B |
| P/S multiple | 4.0x | 8.0x | 15.0x |
| Diluted shares | 21M | 21M | 21M |
| Net debt | $-629.15M | $-629.15M | $-629.15M |
| Implied P/E † | 7x | 13x | 24x |
| 2030 Price | $187.07 | $344.03 | $618.71 |
| NPV @ 10% | $118.55 | $218.03 | $392.10 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because LGND is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $344.03 base case
LGND catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ XOMA Royalty acquisition ($739M) closes in H2 2026, adding 7 commercial products and 100+ development-stage assets; immediately accretive EPS
+ Filspari (sparsentan) FDA approval for FSGS achieved Apr 2026; expanded indications (IgAN, lupus nephritis) in late-stage trials; peak sales potential $800M–$1.2B
+ Kyprolis (carfilzomib) royalties from Amgen continue; long-tail cash generation from 30+ royalty assets; Captisol platform licensing to pharma partners
+ Investor Day Dec 2025 confirmed $1B+ deployable capital for M&A; management signaled 10–15 new mid-size acquisition targets through 2028
+ Qarziba (naxitamab) pediatric neuroblastoma expansion; Ohtuvayre (sacituzumab govitecan) label expansion in triple-negative breast cancer
Key risks
- Filspari uptake slower than modeled if competition from SGLT2i or finerenone intensifies; launch timing delays in IgAN and lupus
- Portfolio concentration risk: Filspari + Kyprolis represent >40% of projected 2026 royalty revenue; any clinical setback material
- XOMA integration execution risk; CVR (contingent value right) tied to Janssen litigation proceeds introduces uncertainty to deal economics
- Biotech royalty aggregator model relies on partner success; limited control over development timelines and market adoption of licensed assets
- Macro headwinds: biotech IPO/M&A slowdown reduces deployment opportunities; higher rates increase cost of capital for Ligand's financing model
Methodology · Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 2030 stock forecast model
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 10 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (4% cumulative for LGND by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($-629.15M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.071) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 4.0x / base 8.0x / bull 15.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
LGND price target FAQ
What is the LGND price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 2030 base case is $344.03 per share, with a bull case of $618.71 and bear case of $187.07. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $218.03.
How is the Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The LGND 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the LGND price target account for dilution?
Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated is projected to grow diluted share count from 20M to 21M by 2030 (a 4% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 4%.
What is the analyst consensus on LGND stock?
10 analysts cover LGND with an average 12-month price target of $271.80. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.