KTOS
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
NASDAQ: KTOS · INDUSTRIALS · AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
$57.75
-1.75% today
Updated 2026-06-12
Market cap
$10.83B
P/E ratio
339.71
P/S ratio
7.65x
EPS (TTM)
$0.17
Dividend yield
—
52W range
$39 – $134
Volume
4.4M
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) Financial Forecast & Price Target 2030
Research-backed projections from analyst consensus, management guidance, and sector analysis.
Research-backed KTOS price target 2030 projection accounting for share dilution, balance sheet debt, and time value of money.
Current price
$57.75
Today
Analyst consensus
$96.28
+66.72% · 12M
2030 Base
$70.50
+22.08% future
NPV today
$44.87
@ 10% WACC
23 analysts:
18 Buy5 Hold0 Sell
Management guidance
CEO Eric DeMarco raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $1.78B (31.87% YoY growth) following strong Q1 results and recent $446.8M Space Systems Command contract award. Management highlighted $2.01B record backlog, $14B opportunity pipeline, and 1.6:1 book-to-bill ratio supporting continued growth through 2027 and beyond. Company is investing heavily in hypersonics (Project Helios facility in Indiana), unmanned systems (Valkyrie, Firejet platforms), and space technologies aligned with Department of War priorities.
Sources: Management guidance, analyst consensus, sector analysishigh confidence
KTOS · Kratos Defense & Security Solutions · Revenue & price projection · 2023–2030E
Actual / 2030 target Projected revenue Base case price Bull to bear range
Bear case (2030)
$46.71
NPV today: $29.73
Base case (2030)
$70.50
NPV today: $44.87
Bull case (2030)
$165.65
NPV today: $105.42
WallStSmart.com
KTOS financial forecast · Research-backed projections
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) | 2029 (E) | 2030 (E) ★ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.3B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $2.9B | $3.7B | $4.5B |
| Revenue growth | 18.5% | 31.9% | 30.1% | 27.2% | 24.9% | 22.6% |
| Net margin | — | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.4% |
| EPS | $0.55 | $0.78 | $1.15 | $1.52 | $1.96 | $2.48 |
| Diluted shares | — | 188M | 188M | 189M | 189M | 190M |
| Net debt | — | $-361.95M | $-271.36M | $-156.12M | $-12.12M | $164.36M |
| P/S multiple | — | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x | 3.0x |
| Implied price (base) | — | $30.32 | $38.29 | $47.61 | $58.41 | $70.50 |
★ 2030E is the model's terminal target year. Implied price = (Revenue × P/S − Net debt) ÷ Diluted shares.
Scenario detail · Three drivers, three outcomes
| 2030E driver | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.5B | $4.5B | $4.5B |
| P/S multiple | 2.0x | 3.0x | 7.0x |
| Diluted shares | 190M | 190M | 190M |
| Net debt | $164.36M | $164.36M | $164.36M |
| Implied P/E † | 19x | 28x | 67x |
| 2030 Price | $46.71 | $70.50 | $165.65 |
| NPV @ 10% | $29.73 | $44.87 | $105.42 |
† Implied P/E: Multiples remain elevated across all three scenarios because KTOS is valued primarily on revenue scale during its growth phase, not near-term earnings power. Lower P/E in the bear case reflects multiple compression, but the absolute level stays high since 2030E still represents a hypergrowth-to-mature transition year.
EV to per-share bridge · How we get to $70.50 base case
KTOS catalysts and risks
Growth catalysts
+ Project Helios hypersonic test facility operational ramp (2027-2028) supporting expanded DoD testing revenue
+ Unmanned systems scale-up: Valkyrie international partnerships (Airbus collaboration) and Firejet J85 engine integration driving higher-margin platform sales
+ Space Systems Command MEO constellation ground network contract execution and satellite/space systems 3:1 book-to-bill conversion
+ Potential acquisition integration (recent unnamed acquisition cited in guidance raise) adding $200M+ annual revenue
+ Pentagon AI/counter-drone budget surge: ARGUS vision system, autonomous defense tech entering full production
+ International defense partnerships: Taiwan drone conversion, SKY Perfect JSAT collaboration, European Valkyrie deployment
Key risks
- Negative free cash flow in Q1 2026 ($48.4M FCF positive but concerns about future liquidity and potential share dilution)
- Supply chain disruptions and increased component costs pressuring gross margins (currently 22%; need to maintain >20% for thesis)
- High valuation (P/S 7.4x, forward P/E 52x) leaves no margin for error; any guidance miss or growth deceleration could trigger sharp repricing
- Insider selling acceleration (Director Boyd sold $156k, Canal Insurance reduced stake 36.7%) suggests insiders skeptical of near-term valuation
- Execution risk on $2.01B backlog conversion and $14B pipeline realization; hypersonic and space programs highly dependent on DoD funding cycles
- Competitive pressure from larger primes (Lockheed, Northrop, RTX) encroaching on affordable unmanned systems segment
Methodology · Kratos Defense & Security Solutions 2030 stock forecast model
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions 2030 price target is calculated using WallStSmart's research model. Revenue projections are derived from analyst consensus across 23 Wall Street analysts, management guidance from the latest earnings call, and sector growth forecasts. The model is built on five core components:
| 1. Share dilution | Projected from per-ticker schedule of SBC + equity raise activity, compounding year by year (1% cumulative for KTOS by 2030) |
| 2. Net debt | EV minus net debt yields equity value; debt projected from capex cycle trajectory ($164.36M by 2030) |
| 3. Time value | NPV calculated using 10% WACC (CAPM: beta 1.062) |
| 4. Multiple framework | P/S compresses with scale: bear 2.0x / base 3.0x / bull 7.0x |
| 5. Scenario design | Bull/Base/Bear vary revenue, margin, shares, debt, and multiple independently |
WallStSmart research model · Not financial advice · Past performance is not indicative of future results · Last researched: May 20, 2026.
KTOS price target FAQ
What is the KTOS price target for 2030?
WallStSmart's Kratos Defense & Security Solutions 2030 base case is $70.50 per share, with a bull case of $165.65 and bear case of $46.71. The NPV of the base case discounted to today at 10% WACC is $44.87.
How is the Kratos Defense & Security Solutions 2030 stock forecast calculated?
The KTOS 2030 projection multiplies projected revenue by a growth-adjusted P/S multiple to derive enterprise value, subtracts projected net debt to get equity value, then divides by diluted shares outstanding accounting for dilution from stock-based compensation and equity raises.
Why does the KTOS price target account for dilution?
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions is projected to grow diluted share count from 188M to 190M by 2030 (a 1% increase) through stock-based compensation and capital raises. Ignoring this would inflate the price target by approximately 1%.
What is the analyst consensus on KTOS stock?
23 analysts cover KTOS with an average 12-month price target of $96.28. The 2030 projection extends this framework with longer-horizon assumptions including dilution and time value of money.