St Joe Company
NYSE: JOE · REAL ESTATE · REAL ESTATE - DIVERSIFIED
Updated 2026-06-05
St Joe Company (JOE) Stock Valuation Analysis
Fair value estimate, historical valuation range, and quality signals for JOE.
Current price exceeds what fundamentals support. Risk/reward skewed unfavorably.
JOE historical valuation range
Where current P/E sits in JOE's own 5Y range.
JOE intrinsic value (DCF)
DCF-based fair value estimate vs current market price.
Intrinsic value calculated using discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on projected free cash flows, discount rate, and terminal growth assumptions. A positive margin of safety indicates the current price is below estimated fair value, providing a cushion against estimation error.
JOE valuation signals
Quick-read green flags, caution flags, and risks based on current metrics.
P/E Ratio — History
Current: 33.64x
P/S Ratio — History
Current: 7.19x
Is JOE overvalued in 2026?
St Joe Company (JOE) currently trades at $65.10 per share with a market capitalization of $3,727,041,000.00. Based on our multi-factor framework, the stock appears richly valued with a Smart Value Score of 48/100. This score blends growth quality, financial health, and price attractiveness into a single institutional-grade read.
The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 33.6x, below its 5-year median of 34.3x.
Looking at its own history, JOE is currently trading cheaper than 66% of the last 5Y on P/E. This places it in the 34th percentile of its historical range, a reasonable but unremarkable position.
Our discounted cash flow model estimates JOE's intrinsic value at $58.71 per share, against the current market price of $65.10. This implies a premium to fair value of -16.73%. The current price sits well above what projected cash flows justify, implying investors are paying for growth that has not yet materialized.
Balance sheet and operating quality look strong. A Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 points to improving profitability, declining leverage, and healthy operating efficiency.
Bottom line: JOE appears richly valued on our framework, with a Smart Value Score of 48/100. At current levels the risk/reward is skewed against the buyer. A materially lower price or significant operational improvement would be needed to change the picture.
Frequently asked questions
Is JOE overvalued?
JOE scores 48/100 on our Smart Value Score (Grade C), a weak overall profile. On valuation specifically, the DCF puts intrinsic value below the current price, so the stock is expensive on cash flow today. The score reflects growth and quality carrying it, not a cheap entry point.
What is JOE's fair value?
Our DCF model estimates JOE's intrinsic value at $58.71 per share, versus the current price of $65.10, a margin of safety of -16.73%. Fair value is the present value of the cash flows we project the business to produce, so a price above it means the market is paying up for growth the model does not yet assume.
What P/E ratio does JOE trade at?
JOE trades at a P/E of 33.6x on trailing twelve-month earnings, against a 5-year median of 34.3x. P/E is what you pay per dollar of profit, and sitting below its own median means the stock is cheaper than usual relative to its earnings.
Is JOE a buy based on valuation?
Our Smart Value rating for JOE is Sell, from a Smart Value Score of 48/100 that blends growth, quality, and valuation. The profile skews cautious, and a better price or clearer operating improvement would strengthen the case. This is research to inform your decision, not personalized financial advice.
How does JOE's valuation compare to its history?
On P/E, JOE sits in the 34th percentile of its own 5Y range, below its long-run median relative to where it has traded. A low percentile means today's multiple is near the bottom of its historical band.
What is JOE's Smart Value Score?
JOE's Smart Value Score is 48/100. It is a proprietary WallStSmart metric blending growth quality, financial health, and valuation into a single 0-100 read, and scores above 75 are rare, signaling strong multi-factor alignment.